Presidential Election LIVE Coverage: ShmueliCast • Kol Haolam • FourCast - Mishpacha

e e e live [Music] to me and Z live and Z live un a delay and Al welcome back to the podcast subscribe subscribe to the show we give out episodes every two weeks and we welcome everybody is in yish but tonight we're going to keep this special election coverage live we'll keep it in English before we start the show we want to thank colam for putting this beautiful thing together Round of Applause for friend of the program shov and schi we got a special guest other guests and we're going to keep on switching it back we have a panel froma um by with Ellie Steinberg and myy litwok and Stu loser the guy M time P the numbers on the state and they will know exactly what's going on but for now I want to bring on Rafi zilberberg is the community District leader from Mike ller Mike ller is running now for reelection we hope he wins I voted for him so we hope everybody got their Ro voting when are the when are the polls closing in New York Rafi the polls close at 9:00 there 49 minutes to go less than an hour to go and a lot of people still didn't vote and as long as you make it to the line before 9:00 you will be able to vote I would say in 2022 by 9:00 there were close to a thousand people still in the lines at this hour at this hour at 9:00 9:00 no as long as you're in the line by 9:00 you will be able to vote at L so no matter the city and up State anywhere you are but this is a race that will be determined by very few votes um last time Congressman Lola won by 1,00 votes it might be a very similar number out of how many people how many people last time was 275,000 this time is expected to be close to 400,000 m double uhhuh and V how how how is the the yish community turning out so the yish community is turning out better than usual but there are it's the highest numbers ever in Rockland County but there are still a lot of people that didn't show up yet so if you're listening or watching this pick up the phone call up friends call up people and tell them go out to vote and if they voted ready they should call other people there are still thousands of votes to come out today 100% And that could be the difference to win yes and if you got to put the kids to sleep so you put the kids to sleep and send your husband out and your husband comes back in he will watch the kids and you go out to vote make a plan go vote and the same goes to people that live in New York 8 New York 19 those are three very competitive congressional districts that have a lot of Jewish people that live there that could make the difference between those three seats that could be the difference who controls the house in yeah the next Congress very important so n no locally not only locally it's important those are not local races it's National races and if Trump wins about the Democrats control Congress impeachment will be on the agenda from day one yes probably you can we can count on it definitely we should count it Jeff will be the if the Democrat Jeff will be the speaker and they will be talking about impeachment from day one wow and so 18 I think is safe though 18 I think we're good he's a republican guys just no no no no 18 is safe for the Democrats safe for the Democrats at the moment but he's winning there we're not putting in somebody else huh there is a republican running Allison espito she is picking up a lot of Jewish Support over there even though most of the endorsements are for Pat Ryan K still endorsed Pat Ryan then uhhuh even those Democrat another another important point I'm just you know getting thrown New York is a is a Democrat state so if you're running as a republican let's say like uh in the state senate Weber like how much is he going to be able to do that's the real question a lot of what happens in the state senate is about blocking the Democrats agenda just imagine if there would be a one party rule by the Democrats with no minority party with no one blocking them no one confronting them look at congestion pricing it was supposed to go into effect in June where you would pay toll every time you go into Midtown Manhattan the fight that the Republicans put up got the governor to pull back because they didn't want to lose votes in this election the Republicans wouldn't put up a fight to it you would have it go into effect same thing is with immigrants New York City wanted to send in 340 migrants to Rockland County if those 340 would have showed up we would have had thousands or tens of thousands of more by now there were investors looking for more hotels to offer to New York City to bring a more migrant wow the Republicans put up a fight went to court sued won and they could they were stuck in the city why because city has different rules they have Sanctuary City Rules right so the city can keep them but the city cannot send them into ra County 304,000 you said that I no there were 340 that were ready to be transported okay the city the city took one hotel and they were like we'll start with one then we'll continue but by the Republicans putting up a fight and stopping it that's why and the same goes to congestion pricing migrants and many other what congestion prices conest pricing was that you pay a toll every time you go into midow Manhattan so they already spent the half a billion dollars on the infrastructure whenever you drive into Midtown Manhattan now you can see those cameras and the same way when you pass a toll booth it was supposed to be that as of June if you go into Midtown Manhattan you pay $5 $20 whatever the exct and who's a of them the upstate city state state the state Jeff saw that the polling is very against it okay so he asked Governor hok pull it back till after the election and watch and see how in the next few days all of the sudden they're going to roll it back this is also very important for us to take out as elections are so important because the the people in power they look at elections they look at the voting the people who go out to vote are you registered and that's what look at look at the H community in K in Monroe and in Mony for the state senate races the state senate leadership is promising to resolve the substantial equivalency issue on the ation because they're afraid to lose those seats one day after the election they're not going to do anything about it but before the election they'll promise anything and everything how are you feeling about the election in general how is the ler campaign oh Sor go ahead go ahead how are you feeling about the election in general I think that people are tired of the current um the Democratic National leadership and people want to see change a lot of people are afraid of the Cala Harris and the Democrats agenda more than the Democrats are afraid of the alleged project 2025 mhm and the turnout look at Florida look at other states that report live turnout throughout the day I think it's looking good for the Republicans the way that redistricting was set up there are not a lot of competitive House Seats there are less than 20 competitive House Seats and less than 10 real competitive House Seats uh New York 17 is one of the top competitive House Seats but most of the races are not competitive same goes to the Senate you have very limited very few um contested Senate seats but the Senate looks very safe for the Republicans at the moment the presidential race at this point is a 5050 anyone who would say any different than a 5050 is just guessing do you have any guess or prediction for what might happen tonight we're not going to know tonight okay sure how is the Lola campaign feeling they're excited over there we're above we're ahead on every single poll um there are obviously a lot more Democrats than Republicans in the district so when you look at it from outside perspective the Democrats are ahead but this is a district that he won last time and this is a district that Biden won in 2020 by 10 points so you clearly have a lot of Democrats that are voting Republicans especially for this seat he did an amazing job two years in Congress by being um available across the board working with Democrats to pass by he was all over the place and he he we had over a thousand events that he attended in less than two years which is a lot more than the average elected official our office was very um accessible to everyone yeah I myself I had n from him so thank you very much I voted for him earned my vote people like his policies people like the way he talks about the issues and the way he uh he always says for example like on bipartisanship people sometimes don't like bipartisan the idea of bipartisanship he's like you first got to figure out what you agree on and then you can talk about what you disagree on a lot of times in politics or in government people first try to figure out what you disagree on so you never get to the points that you do agree on so this way of operating is how he was more successful as a republican in the New York State Assembly than a lot of Democrats are and that's how he was the most successful Republican freshman in this first uh session list we're looking forward to another Amir Amir to so as you heard every vote counts P there's still a half hour go 9:00 get out and vote it's very important even if you think that New York is going to go Blue anyway but instead of giving it to to the Democrats by 23% Maybe by 23 points maybe let's give it to them only by five points and Five Points will send a a a big message clear message y 100% about Mike Lawler if I can just he has bigger plans than just Congress let's first win this race we'll talk about something all answer right now let's first win this thing yeah there's different races in Mony Bill Weber uh is running in that election and Bill Weber will definitely win Bill Weber has it yes yes and he's pushing out Elijah no he is he pushed out Elijah two years ago now Elijah melik is trying to get the seat back uhhuh Elija melck just like many other Democrats will tell you what you want to hear and he'll go from one town to the other and tell everyone what they want to hear you think so this is what they all do Democrats more than Republicans how V is also running reelection over there he's probably going to win he's registered Democrat but as a h it's not so much based on the party affiliation right so he most he will most likely win his district is about half of Mony and Orangetown so he'll definitely win the Mony part of it it's very hard to predict how the Democrats in Orangetown will vote will they vote for him even though he's an orthodox ayic Jew because he's a Democrat or a lot of the Democrats will switch over to vote Republican and a lot of them will abstain and not vote in this race interesting so it's it's very hard to predict how it will but he seems to be very good at Bridging the Gap and and trying to please both sides in any way that he can trying to please both sides never works it could work he still is he hopefully he's still in office if he should win I mean he won a county legislator seat in a district that has more non-js than Jews so OB obviously he could build some coalitions he's doing something right yeah the campaign hot the campaign has numbers every hour how many people vote it who we get in couple every couple of hours we get lists from all four we the district is four counties Rockland County puam County parts of Westchester County and parts of Dutchess County every few hours we get lists of who came out and voted so we know where the numberers stand what areas um the same thing was during early voting every end of the day we got the list who voted that day and the absentee ballot so things are looking good but we got to bring it to the finish line but no matter what happens tonight in the local elections in the big elections we always know as of the and uh he's doing everything and nothing happened to us in 2020 sh and Biden is and enslavement we're all good hopefully we we're hoping for a good outcome and but no matter what happens The Bash is I Know M and we got to trust inm this what I tell myself you know it's up it's up to hm I can only make a live election night and I can go vote and get as many people out to vote I remember in8 so as we can see in back 95 electors they called the ready for Donald Trump Florida they gave him Alabama South Carolina Tennessee can I don't know the all the states but galic so 95 for Trump and 35 for democrats for CES so so far we're winning schi don't get too excited there's something called the red Mirage which happens almost every year in the begin whenever there's an election it starts off with a lot of red States because they a lot of them close earlier and it looks like the Republicans are winning but there's still plenty of room for Kam to win maybe just the Republican knows how to count they know how to count and they close it fast the Democrats don't yeah I just agree with him is uh the red States comp very quickly and then uh we just uh we got to hope for the best but look if Virginia for a couple of weeks if they call Virginia f for Trump yeah what does that tell you that tells me that the blue wall is going towards her is is going towards her towards towards Trump towards Trump yeah Virginia Virginia usually got uh the numbers R Virginia is not a swing state in this not a swing state but if it turns out to be a swing state that's a good sign for it's a definite indication so if it's like too close to call uhuh it's problem for I've heard from you for months already Virginia is in your head for a couple of months already yeah Virginia I'm I'm looking very out they voted for Virginia has a great governor and Glenn yonan is basically driving it towards Trump yes he is he is and it was a big a big deal what happened over thereal to what they what they Democrats want to bring in then and the people didn't stand for it and they voted in Glenn yonen and now Glen yonen W also he won a some kind of a situation that he wanted he wanted to get rid of uh people people that don't live in the state of the roller vo yes of the voter rols and then they wanted to stop him it went all the way up to the Supreme Court and it was a win and this is one thing the Republicans learned this year going to court early on not waiting for the last minute in 2020 when they went to court was already too late to do something about it you can't you can't you can't go to court after the fact cuz what are you going to do and what are you going to do now you can fix it I guess you can prevent certain ballots from being you can prevent in advance you can do something you can't he I hear you iar like in New York in in New York state for example most of the absentee ballots at as we speak are already in the machines so there's nothing to challenge there's nothing to object at this point if you want to object or stop something you have to go into court weeks in advance and fight it in advance so at least we have once it's open you don't and you don't know who the ballot belongs to there's nothing you can do so let's say if you can prove that someone committed you don't know what which one is his ballot okay we just want to take a quick minute to remind everybody there are another 35 minutes to vote in New York state go out there your vote counts as long as you're in line before 9:00 you can vote and your vote does count so use the opportunity and uh get out there so that you don't regret it tomorrow yeah 9:00 you think 9:00 when the polls are going to close they're going to call it right away how long is it going to take when they call it for who who wins New York they're going to call New York right away they're going to call New York right away unless unless we make it so close that it's going to be too close to there's exit polls that show them exit polls yeah so New York New York City is play yeah Stefan who is she she's the she's a Long Island Congress but is Upstate Northern country next to the Canadian border right so she's saying New York is in place so we might not know New York right away when the New York City had um probably over 3 million votes once will be done with election day there's no way that New York isn't Play There's No 3 million votes in upstate to counter that cuz not all 3 million in the city go for the Democrats but but not all 300 3 million go for Democrat exactly so how much of that goes for the New York is not in play New York is not in play it's going to be close Trump it's going to it's going to be a lot it's going to be a lot closer than the 23 points that Biden won by a good point and that helps the Republicans towards 26 towards 25 towards other races coming up because they able to see where they're gaining momentum gaining support do you think that that uh um transfers like if Trump doesn't run and he's obviously not going to run there's a reason why it's close now because of trump not because some uh no it's close because of Kathy hokel okay the disastrous policies of the governor right which is the reason why people are fed up with the Democrats you think that's you think that's the reason that translates to Trump yep I hear I thought it's about the Democrat polities policies as a whole they're fed up with migration they fed up with the economy the way it's going right but it's it's the leadership of the the local leadership the state leadership that causes all these problems that people get frustrated and want to see change interesting it looks like it's going to be a long night ahead of us I hope I hope not right I hope ad can you make a prediction now Rafi so since Bill Clinton there was never a presidential race that was called before close to midnight so it's not happening before close to midnight unless we make it they make it so big that it's cold before midnight Obama wasn't that 08 Obama was 11 something first one 1123 I just I that's an amazing thing America is the most powerful country in the world and in France 1 minute after the polls close you have a winner so in most countries there's one centralized election system in the United States you have over 3,000 election systems every County every County runs their own system you have 3,000 in change counties because it's a republic instead of a democracy now every state controls their state system but at the end of the game the find like in New York state every County makes their own rules on how they post results how uh what machines they use even for federal even for federal elections there federal guidelines the state guidelines but the end of the game the county runs the show something you have 3,000 different counties and you have some counties in the country that have 5,000 people and some have 5 million people they should announce the winner I feel like in Venezuela they know the winners no there's a reason Venezuela they know the winner in advance yes they know exactly even how many percent he wanted by some people were saying 2020 the new events I'm just kidding 2020 was a number of things I don't like going back a lot of people have drama and but we got to hope for the best it's clearly an out it's clearly an outlier 2020 it was Co it was a different way I don't think there's anything to compare it to yeah like when they say now that the early voting was higher than 2020 that's because 2020 had a lot higher mail ballots yes so it's yes so you got to take it into consideration they called Alabama no no I just got a text from Donald Trump he's excited 30 30 stay in line when you get to your polling place do not leave until you vote you have 30 minutes left to vote get into Line Stay in line never leave 30 minutes left to vote and we're going to check in with you soon now we're taking it over to the m panel T in the states and in the numbers as a whole we'll be right back [Music] welcome to the forecast um we're going to this is I'm Ellie Steinberg with me tonight stul loser myy litwak um we're going to give you minute by- minute updates analysis state of the race what to look for what's going on um it's 8:30 election night one thing very important to keep in mind it's way too early to say anything definitive um you you see a lot of data but it's all incomplete but we're what we're going to do now to start off is we'll start taking you through the race Mory yeah so I think I think that there's really B been two different sides of this the coin right which is that you're either predicting a red wave you're predicting a Blue Wave really and and there's a lot of media saying it's going to be very very close but I think uh our early predictions which we can go through I think two of us at the table predicted a red wave and one of us predicted a predicted a Blue Wave how can you reconcile those two things and it really comes down to these critical swing states that you're hearing about if you live in New York you still have time to go vote you should go vote you should be watching this right now you should be going and voting maybe you're watching it online but otherwise we're really focused on Pennsylvania and Georgia and we're focused on places like Michigan and Wisconsin and the reason why we're focused on those Ellie is those are swing States they went one way for Trump in 16 they went another way for Biden in 2020 and now we're in this whole different world so that's really what we're talking about tonight which is who's going to be right who's going to be wrong in those sort of massive predictions is it going to be a red wave or a Blue Wave right and we're going to walk through the states um which are the seven crucial swing States um if you're following this race for any time um you know it already the one on top of the list that everybody talks about Pennsylvania uh Michigan Wisconsin those are the the northern states the the Rust Belt is what they call them um but then there's the states on the East the east side of uh of the country which are um which are the swing States North Carolina and Georgia results coming in already there and then there are the the sun Bel States Arizona Nevada and the state of the race there which is going to be later on tonight um Stu let's let's you're our our resident um as the Hat says Harris um Harris Harris rep I am the Harris re I don't work for Harris rep I didn't I don't work for kamla Harris I've met her and think she's great I gave her money a long time ago um I've done three presidential campaigns I've done more house senate uh and Congressional race uh House and Senate races uh that I can count on my hand and and uh Mayoral race I was I have the uh honor of working for both for Mike Bloomberg three times and against him once the first time uh and my my job was to make sure he didn't get elected I failed he won New York was better for it uh four years later I was back and I was his chief spokesperson at City Hall um so I've been through a lot of election nights and they're they're usually pretty close it is you know if there's no drama it's not really it's not really a race there is a lot of drama and things can flip back back and forth really quickly right and it's an important thing to note that even on nights that the election is not particularly close um the most recent one being 2008 um 2012 really wasn't that close but it was closer than 2008 which was not close all the race wasn't called officially called until 11:00 at night um but let's let's go through your your your um I saw you when you walked in here tonight you're wearing your Gore liberman um sweater vest um walk us through um just the feeling of tonight um how it's feeling so far how the race is feeling from your perspective and then um we'll talk through it from from the rest of our perspective how are you feeling what's how you feeling about I guess I'm feeling two things neither neither on the presidential race uh neither side is really running away with this we see a lot of noise in the data we've seen some errors in lden County pouncil uh Virginia Which uh was a horrible blow for KLA Harrison then it turned out not to be true um that's one take is that no one is no no one is running away with this just yet just to be clear what what exactly that was there was a swing from something a county that was strong Harris in uh strong Biden in 2020 and there was Data reported that showed that it was uh that it swun to Trump but it was a data error it was a datea error and they that that is going to happen back and forth um in both blue States and red States and blue cities and red cities and of course most cities in this country actually aren't run by uh partisan Mayors e anyway they're run by nonpartisan uh forms of government um so like we're going to see a lot going back and forth that's sort of my first take and my second take is um for all of our technology for all of our ability to see what each other is saying on Twitter on social media on Tik Tok on on on whatever else we are still a deeply divided country most people are tuning in tonight and being I think pretty surprised that their Guy the one that they know or their candidate the one that they know and that all their friends are voting for isn't uh in in a massive lead yet it it just it's we are um we are a closely divided country and we are a bitterly separated country in which we don't really know each others Ellie Ellie do you do you you would prior to us being here you both we were we were texting about this and we said you know we hate to have all this election coverage and people have to wait till 11:00 or 1: in the morning or things like that there are early indicators for those watching right now early indicators that you can watch and you can see so if you're a Ellie you predicted a red wave Stu predicted a Blue Wave Ellie as for a redwave guy what would make you nervous and what would make you excited which state makes you nervous to see early returns which makes you makes you excited what can the listeners and viewers uh pay attention to right so um you're always you're going to look it's it's very hard to extrapolate from like we said from the from the data as it's coming in because for every data point that tells you one thing everything that you see that tells you what you want you'll find something else that tells you what you don't want to hear right um that all being said when you see um when when you see a lot of things moving in One Direction um and and there was this graphic that that was up and it's a shame that I can't put it up here at the show we'll get there we'll we'll get there we'll get that worked out but where you see um a bunch of counties and I think it was Georgia and the times had this this great graphic with an arrow showing which direction the vote is moving from the last election and they're all moving um red to the right M that's that's a strong indicator of where we're going because that means vote there's there's a vote she that was counted and that vot that was counted is moving in one direction from four years ago and we know the margins four years ago were very very very very narrow so so Georgia gets you excited you say wow that's a good way for w red which state makes you nervous if you start to see it Go Blue so we know this we were talking about this um we were talking about this in our in our episodes before the election um and I was saying this for for weeks the state that makes me the most nervous um outside of Michigan which I think is uh is is gravy um if Trump wins it and again I'm the Trump guy um but the the the state that makes me most nervous is North Carolina um even before the stuff with the governor started and that race has already been called for the Democrat Jewish Democratic Jewish Democrat but the even before that stuff was coming out North Carolina got me nervous and we we saw in the polls that that you know a lot of the polling data that was coming in from North Carolina was was showing sort of more of a Swingin to and I think we can agree 16% of the votes in uh in in in North Carolina right now Donald Trump is up by 3% 5148 and that's meaningless 16% we don't know absolutely nothing almost nothing it's a 35,000 35,000 votes out of a million and so so steu for you what which one makes you nervous which one makes you excited which state um Virginia makes me nervous as a Democrat as a Democrat Virginia makes me nervous we spoke about that we should talk about that because we we'll talk about that in a few minutes I think um because Comm Harris should be ahead by more and they have about half the V excited I would say excited I'm a little confused right now with the numbers we have 42% of the poll of the number of of the uh of the vote in in Ohio and it's essentially tied um it's not on anyone's radar screen uh to have to to uh for for for for Comm Harris to do well um it's a good sign for the senate race a good sign if you support the Democrat um in the senate race it's a weird sign uh since since obviously JD Vance is from Ohio um and it's probably not going to not going to hold up but it is it is you know and of course it's probably cities and it's probably lots of early vote but it's still 40% early vote but it's still 42% say so as we as we're looking at this now and you're watching live this incredible election coverage and it's amazing and and we appreciate everyone watching and call for doing this and and and everybody else involved in this right now it says and I'm on the New York Times and some people don't like the New York Times I understand but I'm the New York Times and it says right now Georgia president lean Trump they have a big red lean Trump Virginia president lean Harris so right now if you were looking at this and you were saying well who's doing well Etc and from an early perspective you would say the Republicans are doing better here right now in terms of this right right I would say that yes and Ellie you would say that you would be surprised even that Virginia's competitive right now yeah so we in our when we were prepping for this um we were talking about different things to look out for and and what sort of things are the big indicators um and one of the things that we brought up was Virginia and Virginia is not so much an indicator because you know there's any real expectation that Trump's going to win Virginia um Trump shouldn't win Virginia if he wins Virginia I think all of us um all of us can say you know that's game over it's a historic the the numbers are seeing I mean there are there's a lot of vote that's in from up in the northern part of the state which is the most liberal part of the state but there are other parts there other Democratic Parts where there aren't a lot of Virginia Virginia right now as we're looking at this I have it is Virginia's 951491 497 for Trump and 943 832 for Harris so right now he's he's actually got a slight Edge obviously he's only 43% of votes in I don't how much of that is Northern Virginia which I assume a lot of Northern Virginia hasn't encountered which is heavily Democratic and and Ellie you're a numbers guy talk to us about what that means because a lot of people say what are you talking about it's in at 13% or 20% and it says Trump's winning or it says Harris is winning why would you say like you have races where literally states where it says at 60% or SE like it says at se 65% Trump's winning right or it says 65% Harris is winning but people will say no Trump will lose that state or Harris will lose that state why is that so in terms of that and when we talk about like Urban Ur like Urban cities and we talk about Suburban voters or rural voters what is that mean if you're from you're not living in a rural community for the most part uh no offense to everybody out of town I grew up out of town but you're not living in in a rural community so what does that mean yeah so so there's a lot of work that the forecasters do it's not it's not as simple as just taking a look at the numbers and saying oh there's 25% of the vote in and and you know do that times 4 and that's your result there's a lot of a lot of work goes into what's the vote that's been counted what's the partis the makeup how many Republicans live in the place that was counted how many Democrats live there then we look at the vote not we I don't do this but I I know who the people are who do this that are worth following um and the people who try to do this who aren't but you look at the vote that's that's in from those and then you're able to extrapolate based on that say okay now here's the vote that hasn't been counted yet oh here's um you know let's we'll get to Pennsylvania but there's certain places where election after election after election in places that are heavily Democrat it's 90% of the vote goes to the Democrat 10% goes to the Republican okay so I know if that's the the the the 50% that's still out I know okay you have a 12-point lead it's meaningless because I know that the vote that's still to be counted is going to come in much more heavily to the other side so so that that's where the forecasters and the the the all of that great stuff that goes on and um on um is is is Meaningful now now there's there's other stuff do talk about this is um tell people about who Dave McCormack is and Bob Casey and what that means because right now Pennsylvania looks very close on the presidential side but Casey is up almost 300,000 votes on on McCormack what does that mean practically what are we looking at when we hear names like that and what that means well it's a it's a good question um four years ago and eight years ago um eight years ago the sign that most people missed that Donald Trump was going to win even just two weeks before the election was that the Democrats running for Senate started to Crater they started to lose in the swing States states that are going to be close uh for the presidential race likely to be close in the senate race um the Democrats started to lose and nobody really saw it was a canary and a coal mine it was a early indication we didn't see that this time um that said Pennsylvania I mean there's a lot of factors that we don't understand here or that we don't really know uh Dave McCormick um is a you know is is the Republican candidate uh he has been roasted on TV on social media on mail for not really being from Pennsylvania this comes two years after the Republican candidate Dr Oz was roasted for not being from Pennsylvania Dr Oz filmed ads in New Jersey in his house and said here I am in my kitchen it wasn't even in Pennsylvania so pennsylvanians are used to but that that that's a kind of a one-off thing in Pennsylvania it's not an issue that's happening almost anywhere else except for Montana maybe um we'll worry about Montana a little bit I think that you know I'm a little hopeful in the senate race but uh a lot of people aren't yeah yeah but I think there's a there's some weird factors going on here they're weird and unique factors every person who's going out there is going and to vote is going with a different set of beliefs and I have to say like Pennsylvania is also a case in a state where there is a large Jewish vote not F not kidish not not Haisha but je Jewish vote the ham vote yeah we know who they're going to vote for Trump but there's a large vote who would traditionally be for uh the Democrat who probably even voted for mandale over Reagan some of these older people uh 1984 U maybe not Carter over Reagan but Mondale over Reagan um and they've been mobilized and it's not at all clear that they're voting for KLA Harrison and do you know who's been mobilizing them do you know who's been doing the work this guy that's why we wear the hat that don't fetch vote and if you're a New York voter you got to still go vote and you got to make sure your friends vote and you got to encourage them to vote and I think that you have to get on line you got to get on line make sure you're on line it's not just I hesitate to say this because I'm going to imagine most people in Nevada who are listening to us are not going to come out uh and vote for KLA Harris but like plenty of time to vote in Nevada there a serious now something something else that I want to mention which we we touched on so we know what's happening and just a little update for the for people watching Georgia is is is looks like Trump is significantly ahead in Georgia right now so unless I'm missing something it it looks again it looks like it's going his way but again only 58% of uh of votes are in so we don't know but but uh it's tracking that way now now Ellie talk to us Stu talk to us about the Senate and the fact that the Senate control really can rest on Pennsylvania voters who are voting for Senate and some other big races we saw in West Virginia uh Republicans already flipped one seat y talk to us about the these house races which which we were just they were just talking about the Lawler race they were talking about the Des Esposito race and some of these other things from a New York side it seems to me like control of Congress whether or not Republican speaker or democrat speaker it could come down to a lot of districts here that from voters are in in New York can you talk to us about that so full disclosure I'm like you U my I'm the Jersey guy so the New York races um we we have everything figured out in Jersey already we have everything figured out in Jersey already that's where we come to York we already figured everything out Andy Kim already the senator so that's uh that one he's getting sporn in in 10 minutes that's it um but we we'll also we'll we'll hit more on the New York um the New York races a little bit later in the in the program but um I I I do want to get back just one thing from that what my was saying before um Georgia um close to 60% of the VOE in um Trump right now showing as having an 11-point lead I can assure you Trump will not win Georgia by 11 points um the the New York times's forecast Nate Cohen who an excellent data guy you saw that face from from um I've disagreed with him in the past yeah I may disagree with him in tonight yeah he's probably going to get like everybody else in the polls and we we'll get to the poll thing soon but he's probably going to get a lot of things wrong about this election everybody's getting a lot of things wrong about this election but forecasting um right now showing Trump as having a a 71% chance of of winning the race um and an eventual um probable margin of victory of about two 2 and a half points um but again since there's so much vote still out right that can swing right um that that all being said um one of the things that we know again in the data that's come in so far Georgia exit polling has showed a big swing of Independence towards Trump this election over last election so if if you know a lot of we always say that the the race is always decided by the Independence Independence swung to Trump will that play out entirely in Georgia we'll see um other swing States we could go through what the you know how it's looking right now um North Carolina well one one second so decision desk just projected that Harris wins Virginia so they've already they already they already said it's game over so this is why you watch a live broadcast like this this is why do it so that you can learn right away they just declared Virginia um is has won with which is which is 13 electoral votes which is Big it's something that the Republicans are trying to go after nobody really believed for the most part they were going to be able to do it but decision just just made that declaration that Virginia has gone for Harris and the reason why it's big is is because um obviously we're just getting down to these swing States and they and they called New Hampshire as well they called New Hampshire yeah they just called New Hampshire as well they called New Hampshire as well so we're going to get down these swing States and that's what we're going to do but it also just shows you why you may see something that looks a little close to you but you have to it's very very important just to know a little bit that Nuance the parish Rashi on how these things work and that's what we're here to help you do so I want to point out this um and I'm going to try to pull it up now but I believe um let's see the the the prediction the way the the projection of the of the vote um the way the way um both in New Hampshire and in Virginia and this is why we're discussing New Hampshire and Virginia not because um we have or had any expectation that Trump may win New Hampshire Virginia but the the projected margin of Victory um for Harris in New Hampshire is 3.9 um and 5.1 in Virginia um both of these are significant swings towards Trump from how Biden beat him in 2020 and that is why it's significant it's not signant significant it's significant but we but INE but it matter it matters where the votes you know we we all know but we'll remind people and some some some of our listeners um you know are I let's presume 18 years old and W wer weren't voting for years ago um difference of 30,000 votes in the United States presidential election would U four years ago would have totally changed the Electoral College Kam Harris's win in Virginia look I'd love to see her win with 80% of the vote um not happening but solid win right but but here here's the point is that if you take somewhere like Virginia and then you can you can take the vote tot the vote vote margin and you say and and there are places in the swing States like in North Carolina and in a Pennsylvania where you can say okay there are certain counties that you can you can learn from when you look at this you look at you look at Virginia and you say Okay Virginia moved this many points there's a lot of similarity in the makeup of a lot of the counties in these swing states where you could say okay this moved this amount of points I can say that it's entirely reasonable to to think that these these other candidat are GNA move and which is why at this point I'll say it St May disagree I think right now where we're sitting at 8:52 p.m. election night you'd much rather be sitting in Trump's seat right now than in K Harris's seat I I will say we're going to toss this back or give this back to our to uh our friends who who are who are um also doing this forecasting I I think that every state is different and we're going to see we're going to come back to you guys in about a half hour and you're going to see a very different map I think we're going to kick it back to the incredible guest the incredible guys going to hear more information we're bringing you everything live with opinions here we go to his family chat and is always a minute too late don't be a minute behind sign up to be the first to the craziest Airline credit card offers and online join pz de today download the pz deals app and never pay full price again pslv is not ahead so much going be closer also I didn't get anything in my ear I didn't get anything in my ear here's yet another winner for tonight May in a decisive outcome based on Talent help me build credit has emerged as the clear winner in the race as the most comprehensive website that will help you choose the card with the best offers and benefits billions and billions and trillions have elected us as the preferred choice for navigating the complex world of credit cards visit help mebu credit.com the most obvious choice to make your cards great again the votes used to prepare this information have been submitted exclusively by living individuals [Music] welcome back to the program have gone better yes we're going to keep it in English apologies my first language is Yiddish I mean Virginia we knew the whole time is going to go for the Democrats right but we were hopeful if it if it if it was going to be a schella night then they would have called Virginia and they would have called No Hamshire for the for the GOP but but there's plenty of Pathways in for Trump to still make it butun gave him but the fact that they called it's so early right could have been he Virginia is too early to call would have had some fun with it until 10:00 11:00 but if you're still in the line it's 8:55 you have 5 minutes to even go if you stand there before 9:00 they got to let you in but for now nothing concrete but just to uh make you a little bit uh happier New York Times is co is not calling yet but uh they're estimating Trump to win Pennsylvania oh pania but uh yeah the a shock people are shocked about Virginia so far the polls are pretty much on On Target what about Pennsylvania Sylvania Virginia Virginia is cold already right but that was a pulse uh so Pennsylvania should close fast soon alive Pennsylvania should close so so far he's up to 141 electoral college and she is up to 72 so far so good SCH bringing guest we have go ahead so we have in the studio with us RAB yand who has been a writer for about politics in New York for the past 18 years he's worked with AMI magazine mishak magazine hamodia and the ated and uh he knows a lot about the Jewish community and how they vote please tell us a little bit about what's been going on in New York over the past few months I know there's been a lot of chaos uh in the city there's been some uh corruption scandals going on can you give us a little bit about that just to start off okay so the city this uh mayor has been has been indicted first time the city New York City May has been indicted on corruption charges uh he's been tying this to National politics he's been saying that it's because he uh you know because he's been complaining about immigration to the city about how uh you know Biden President Biden hasn't been doing enough to curb immigration and he's saying that because of his complaints that's why he was indicted and Republicans have been more than happy to you know to cheer him on that President Trump has openly said you know that he knew right away as soon as he started complaining about aggression right away will be indicted and sure enough a year later he was and it's interestingly the past uh the past couple of weeks uh Eric Adams you know Die Hard Democrat he endorsed kamla Harris obviously but he has never criticized president Trump uh when asked about it know this is you know this is red meat for for for his base for Democrats he hasn't you know criticized them and uh he hasn't even you know really spoken nicely about Kamala even though he endorsed him he endorsed her uh the word on the word on the street is that you know he doesn't want to ruin any chance in case president Trump wins or maybe getting an uh getting a pardon he has compared his own case to president Trump I don't know if he did his close dayses have compared his owne to president Trump if you saw the video from the Al Smith dinner uh president Trump was speaking he made a little bit of fun of Mayor Adams but he was also very kind he was and he kind of said you know I understand what you're going through I've been through the same thing yeah you know both of them have you know they wouldn't indicted he wasn't inded four times but he has four separate counsil B against him president Trump OB had four separate you know set of charges brought against him and uh and he says it's both of them say it's all about politics it definitely is all about politics he has become a fellow traveler with Trump he has become yeah yeah yeah the Biden justice department has brought them together you you see isn't isn't there a way for for the mayor of New York City to make the the the city it shouldn't be a sanctuary City doesn't he not have that power um he does have the actually he doesn't have the power he has a together with the city council but there's a lot of Mis misconception about this Sanctuary City uh New York City's troubles not because the sanctuary City it's because the city council passed the law uh I don't remember how many years ago 15 20 years ago that just stated that everybody in the city has a right to housing to food to shelter and that is the thing so other words you can be illegal illegally here you have that right is that like a constitution of the city it's it's no not a constitution it's c what are they calling again it's a law the city council passed the law so if they have a they have a right anybody here legally has the right to food and shelter so you know times that by how many hundreds of thousands of illegals have come in here and uh it equals up to billions of dollars yeah that is the problem not because of sanctuary City Sanctuary City just to just to finish this thought a sanctuary City just means that the city will not cooperate with ice with the federal immigration Authority if they uh if they arrest somebody for whatever crime because then they will not they will not uh tell ice that we have illegal immigrant in prison uhhuh that's the only thing that a sanctuary City constitutes of I thought it's more so if they have to give housing for everybody why do we see so many homeless all over the place because we don't have enough housing as simple you know ask any H kala in in B Park you know where did you get housing from the city wasn't built to accommodate that amount of people and uh it is what it is it's a it's a big city but it's not as big as as it could be what's the story about what some people say that there's a lot of people making a business of it the city is paying for you to house homeless and they buying uh a lot of people making a lot of money the hotel owners are making even a two two three family uh house and they just uh I guess there's a certain way how it has to be set up and they're making a fortune out of this is that a real thing going on or just um it's it's been a real thing for a long time even predating this whole immigration crisis because excuse me some people will just live every anywhere no no he is going to get married unless he has at least Le three room apartment minimum right but you have other people that come from other countries and they're willing to live uh you know five families in in in in in two rooms you know it's just just the way it always was and now you have people here illegally they feel like they have less choice of where they where they want to live where they could live so they live yeah you know 3040 people per per per per unit apartment unit so some people feel that because there's so much much uh immigration into the City and there are definitely a lot of people who are making a lot of money off of this crisis um there's a possibility that it's just going to continue on forever because the people who are making money will donate to the politicians so they don't change anything and potentially this goes on for years and years and years people make money the city suffers and the politicians get whatever they get for it and it just goes on forever and there's no incentive to change anything so so let me tell you an interesting thing one of one of my articles I've written a lot of art I've been in this business for 18 years already one of my articles which made the biggest FL I still people still tell me today you know these days about um when Joe Biden first became president I was with Mish at the time and they sent me to the border to the Mexican border to see what happened and I I was like very you know when they sent I was I was very you know uh hesitant about I'm going to go there who am I going to talk to how am I going to find out what's happening interestingly I went over there I right outside the Border about 100 feet away from the US border there was a t City thousands of people over there I found a guy who spoke English He translated for me I was there entire day from about noon until late at night and I spoke to these people I said what brought you here every single one of them said that they they all had this date I I think was February 22nd they said that they said that they were told that President Biden said February 22nd he's opening the Border this is why they all came these people did not even know who Trump is they didn't know Trump B they just know that there's a pres they didn't even know that there was a new presidential election they heard that Biden they had the state President Biden is opening the Border February 22nd they all wanted to B they all came by the thousands uh whether immigrants come to the country or not is not you know just like a random thing it's when there's a message sent from Washington open that the bord is open it might even have been a misspeak or it might even have been you know like a a total mistake on on that part but they that's a message that they get and this is why uh so you want to know if it just go on and on um it it very much depends on who the president wins though yeah yeah we're going to send it over to the and there a lot of polls closing at 9 :00 the forecast from theak and we'll be right back they give you the live updates from the race go ahead take it away okay 9:00 um a number of states a lot of States poll's closed we put it up on the screen so you can see Arizona Colorado Iowa Kansas Louisiana Michigan Minnesota Nebraska New Mexico New York called for Harris already North Dakota South Dakota Texas Wisconsin Wyoming Wisconsin swing state we're keeping an eye on Iowa Iowa there was um a big poll we'll discuss it when we come back for our main segment which makes Iowa also even though it's not expected to be a swing state and it's expected to go for Trump worth keeping an eye on for reasons like we discussed before um also just closed um calls on some of these states could be made right away because they're they're not up for for you know there there's no suff 4% of the voter is in in North Dakota and we know that tonald Trump one North Dakota all all Trump South Dakota same thing with New York we know New York con Harris um and um the the the the the one thing that we know again from this from this list of states that close now the big one that we're keeping an eye on is Michigan um to see um to Michigan Wisconsin two swing States in this list we're going to be keeping an eye on it for you um to see you know how it moves yeah I think it's it and right now if we if we're if we're playing it right right before we we kick it back it's Georgia looks pretty good for Trump right now North Carolina obviously looks pretty good for Trump right now Pennsylvania is edging closer for Harris right now um Michigan with very little reported in is edging closer for Harris so a lot of ball game left to play and we're not going to know Pennsylvania for some time Chester County just the County south of Philadelphia uh just announced that they're going to keep their polls open till 10 p.m. New York time so we're going to be or I guess Philadelphia time too uh so you know we're going to be at this for a while with Pennsylvania Michigan stay tuned for the forecast or shoy cast we are going to be here with amazing amazing updates and inform information expertise right here throwing it back right to the schoy cast so right back right back to us they say I can't believe it's pa pa is looking like it's going for the Democrats PA yeah not it's going for them but he's saying that it's she's edging in we we were thinking that Pennsylvania anyway just to update um New York Times and the AP did not call Virginia yet so oh yeah take it as you want so who is the one calling the shots who is the the way it goes is there about five or six uh put it this way the government does not declare a winner until weeks after the election when you say that a certain person won that there are five or six news agencies that they follow all the races and they s decide based on their knowledge they have experts people know every single County every single one of the 3,000 plus counties in the country they know how it's expected to go if they he for example just to give an example if they hear that New York is uh uh Trump is ahead 60 to 40 but they know that Manhattan didn't didn't give him the votes they won't call it for Trump because Manhattan is first is huge a second world is probably going to be like 80 90% for Harris so they know all counties around the country especially in the swing States and based on that based on like who gave it in already who gave in their votes already who didn't give in their votes they'll know uh who uh you know who's expected to win and they'll make the call you know so you have for example AP AP is one of the biggest ones they make the call they make that call whenever they ready fax is another one New York Times decision desk those those agencies make the so that's all did not call it yet yeah so of whenever between these uh between these agencies that's when you like one candidate still has a chance what happens if you call a state very fast like in in 2020 I think fox called Arizona right away what is h what happens like the people of Arizona just get everything the whole mood dies down what's the kma from calling State Qui yeah the that you you bring up Arizona and Fa this is a very sore point for for for Trump for everybody because the other agency did not call until the next day not only an hour later they didn't call till the next and it was close in the end it was the second close after Georgia Arizona came in very close right right and they called it right away and why because Fox is considered more Republican so to have like sort of like their man like own teammate you know call for the other guy was a very big clap for Trump Yeah so basically you're saying anybody can call it but there's the six they have their experts all the VES of the 3,00 how many counties 3,300 counties there about 3,000 plus I I don't remember plus it's interesting to point out that the the GOP controls most of these counties right right right Pennsylvania is leaning towards Trump they're making an announcement okay meis yeah it's leaning towards Trump Butler is going for Trump how is Butler looking Butler can you imagine they're not even talking about the assassination what does that tell you if it would have been somebody else nine what do you think they would have talked about it nonstop nonstop coverage to be a victim is a very Democratic thing to do yeah it doesn't fit well on Trump that they wanted to shoot he he himself uh dismissed it very quickly was just a small guys uh one more update uh Harris got uh Ukraine has been called for Harris they called Ukraine what do you predict Shai if you have to predict now is be a winner tonight well you asked me an hour ago I would have come in with a whole bravado here now there's already numbers I actually see numbers so it's a little hard what what does the numbers show I I I for months you know I've been very public uh with you on that and uh with with friends I cannot see anybody voting for her um there's too many indications other than uh actual polls but there's a million they can't so um there's too many things why I believe that uh she has no chance the uh people look at Trump as a leader strong interviews talking he very loud and very and um uh and Harris from the other other hand she until they slept her out of the basement to make an interview they that kind of then you have the the black vote the Hispanic vote a lot shifted towards Trump um you have Independents Libertarians Li what do you think she just that just a weak candidate for a lot of things first of all I believe uh her fracking comments the border and the two main Wars Ukraine and Gaza really hurts Biden and she's part of it and she cannot sep just part of it she went right after the right right after Biden got into office she went over there to uh to Europe and she she like she gave a speech and she said something about Ukraine becoming a part of NATO and that's what that right that's set stuff things into motion can I can I just disagree over here for a second all due respect um some you can never say that she has no chance you know if a person could get let's say last time you had about 158 million people voted right so even the loser Trump at the end of the day he got what he got 75 million 75 a person get 75 million he could get 76 million also 78 million also the whole difference is between a couple the problem is that you know we live in a bubble as Buddha Community we as a Jewish Community yeah I just thought there was a nishma poll a survey I don't know how scientific it was but it came out a a few weeks ago saying that 93% of the heish community was for Trump now you know it wasn't I don't know how scientific but it's Z made sense it was very you know it made sense everybody I know is for Trump you have a couple of people you know like they're for Harris but most people the people who see the light the see whatever whatever you want to call they I would not bet M uh let me I just want to finish this thought but you have to understand that people in other places they live in their own bubble they live in a Harris bubble true and they don't know anybody who who who who supports Trump and they can't imagine how anybody would support Trump so whatever you're thinking about Harris they're thinking about Trump isn't it fascinating it's it's fascinating it's fascinating yeah the the only reason why I said that is not because I really know I just take a stand because I'm I have to fill up here no but the point is I I've heard very good actually um uh there's a there's a lot of indicators that leads me to that the Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2020 he lost by very very little right he is an uh anomaly that he can get the Jewish vote and the Arab vote and she gets like uh and she she gets a Critic of both so the I'm talking about these indicators not not nothing scientific he he lost by he lost by a very small amount of votes but he also won in 26 by very small amount of votes right uh he I don't know if he'll have the Arab vote but he doesn't need the Arab vote he just needs enough of them to peel away from her in order to take his brutal Coalition which is in Michigan which you know Michigan is a very is a very working class white working class uh State and they're basically in his column he just needs in order to push him over the top he needs a few more few more black for her and a little bit more for him and this makes a whole difference so of course I'm not going to bet money on that but uh the indicators from the past elections 2016 2020 based on that I'm I'm just saying that yeah what's also interesting I should mention you want to say something okay it's all yours this is the first time I think in US history that they put out a candidate that nobody voted for in the primaries is that is that fair to say uh well you have the first about the 12 elections that there was that there was no elections at all it was it was the the electors were voted in by the state you know Senate and House uh you know uh uh contingent you know there was no elections no direct elections and people didn't real so but doesn't say anywhere that you have to actually earn votes it's a good talking point for Republicans but doesn't say anyway that you have to actually earn votes all you have to do is you have to just get enough votes in the in the in the in the primary in the primary process in order to in order to get up there there were times in the past before the modern time matter of time before 50 years ago there were times you know people came and you know and at the end at the end of the convention they nominated somebody that either had no idea that he was even a candidate or might not even have been by the by the give me an example when when did such a thing happened um well of you have the famous case you have the 1876 election uh RF for Hayes RF for B Hayes he was uh it was a time there was a whole fight between uh those who wanted the South who wanted their you know freedom from you know from the occupation from the from the North and the north who wanted to continue it and the both candidates were not able to get enough votes they just nominated like a a sidekick I didn't even know if he was by the convention um who ended up winning the election he won the election he he was nominated and he won the election who who was the president in the end was the president president president ruford b haes ruford b haes he wasn't even nominated by the committee it's not so unprecedented I it's not unprecedent how much weight do you put on the the betting Market cuz as we speak it's just flying up for Trump 70 Trump what is it saying now so the market 76 this is the highest he's ever been he's never been at 7 the the the Betty Mark just one of uh you know I don't know how I say dozens of indicators right uh where you know where people's hearts and minds are how much is our wishful thinking uh our wishful thinking going back to uh somebody getting nominated without being El elected on the primary I think people fail to realize that kamla Harris is technically the person who stands up if something happens to the president so if the president were to get sick or drop dead she would be the acting president therefore I don't think it's so wild that she kind of got put into place however there are many people who feel that this was something they knew they were going to do a long time ago and therefore there should have been a different kind of primary yeah the the big uh the big feeling of angst among Republicans is that uh they they felt that they had the race in the hands when it was against Biden Biden was thinking like aaq and uh you know Trump felt he's he could taste it already and then all of a sudden traded him with k Harris and uh she she really managed to un the party she she was a monster fundraiser um you know and and she was able to you know you know for a while she had she was even ahead of him in the poles yeah small while so he felt he felt you know like we're you know he felt that it was unfair that you know but it might be unfair but there's no rules against it I hear it was unfair indeed just life is unfair all the time yeah anyway some more predictions to be called we're going to turn it over to from the for the forecast with M to zoom more into detail v v by the race and we'll be right back with you mly cast we're back here with the forecast we appreciate everyone listening and as we stand right now it's about 9:20 uh I'm looking at this in the New York Times has added 177 electoral votes uh to Harris's 99 uh they're giving right now A 66% chance of winning Victory to Trump and projecting it's leaning towards Trump with 285 electoral votes that being said that being said in Pennsylvania where we're going to be watching very clearly and as I said mentioned before Harris is ahead right now in Pennsylvania 21% of the vote it's 866 th000 votes to 69,000 it is close going to come down to Pennsylvania one of the reason we're watching Pennsylvania is because Pennsylvania has the largest Jewish community in the country of the Swing States so we're watching it we care about it and we want to understand it but I want to I want to talk with with two people on polar opposite sides politically and understand what happened this last week because there was momentum it felt like on the Trump side and then it felt like Harris grabbed that momentum and she had momentum and so who what happened this past week I'll kick it over to to Ellie to start Ellie what happened this past week here oh uh the last week almost gave me an ulcer um the the the um the Vibes before the you know the Madison Square Garden rally were all on the side of the Trump campaign and it wasn't just The Vibes it was the data as well we were seeing not just we were seeing like we said previously on the podcast um Trump Donald Trump best closer modern presidential Politics the last he ran two campaigns before this one it wasn't this time we'll we'll get to this time we'll get to this time cuz steu you know this the difference between running a bad campaign and running a good campaign is how it turns out yeah so if he wins The Campaign if he wins this election it's true he's gonna he's he's going to be the third he's going to be the third it's going to be the Third campaign that he ran which he he closed tremendously and he won so we saw it not just the the presidential election we saw it with with Senate races and um other Senate races that were close we saw we saw the the Republicans all all closing the gaps or pulling ahead but you you felt you felt like he she he had Trump had it and then there's this disastrous madis Gard he spent this he spent the last week spent the last days his last times in front of the American people he's arguing about Nancy Pelosi he's arguing he's yelling about Oprah Winfrey he's got all these women that he's angry at struck me as it struck me as as someone who helps train people to speak and then is sort of powerless as when they go out and speak struck me as a guy who knew that the end was near and then he was trying to make his last points even though the points he should have been making was the economy the uh border immigration inflation all all of his points he's got there talking about Petty grievances it struck me as a guy who knew that he wasn't going to win so I'm I'm going to make one point about that is that we you're going to have to be able to differentiate between what are the things that the media decided to cover from what Trump spoke about and what he speak what he actually spoke about now obviously those are things he spoke about as well but there's a lot in the weave of a trump campaign rally that goes into it and it's not just that one sound bite that that the media wants take wants to take and say this is what he was discussing that being said that being said the last and I'll say since shabas for sure um but last week felt very it was very nerve-wracking for somebody invested in a trump Victory and the what I'll have to say is is that the the driving Point behind what made me really feel nervous about this race was the Seltzer Pole now the Selzer pole doesn't mean um for people who never heard got excited when I heard about the Cel I thought it was C I'm of a very very big Seltzer addiction say it wasn't it's not flavored Seltzer flavor whatever it's no that's not what it says there's a poster in in in in Iowa and seltzer very very accurate pollster she's tremendously accurate she Nails her races all the time and she came out with a poll that she dropped on M chabas that showed kamla Harris winning Iowa by four points now anyone anyone who's been following the race nobody would tell you with the exception of this man right here ster nobody would have told you that there's a chance that Trump is going to lose Iowa absolutely not her earlier numbers after Harris came in before had her down four had her down four Riden had been down 15 she closed that in the first days to or or a look it's not we don't know if she closed it we don't know when the Gap closed because it's just a snapshot in time but the snapshot that was taken I think even before we knew that Tim Walls Governor from the next state over who grew up in the other state over um was the nominee before all that happened she had taken it within four that's a lot of momentum it is it is we just we just I just want to update uh the viewers that uh one of the races that was being looked at was Senator Ted Cruz and people did care about that a lot and they thought it was going to be more competitive than it is I think it was just showing again Florida was not competitive um the T Ted Cruz election not competitive I think again it's going to going to come down in these swing states that were doing this here I want to bring up something else let's say that Harris wins Pennsylvania um Ellie are there other avenues for Trump to win if Harris wins Pennsylvania um yeah there there are other avenues it's not it's not simple Trump this is Trump's path to Victory Trump's path to Victory the most simple the simplest path to V to victory for Trump is North Carolina Georgia Arizona um he should win Nevada and one of the rustbell state which means either um Pennsylvania Wisconsin or Michigan um he doesn't have to win all three of them MH polling data for whatever it's worth you know what I'm saying don't bet if if you're not ready if you're not ready to lose the money don't bet your money on on you know based on polling and and how we and steu how are we feeling right now if you're if you're if you're right now the New York Times just DP kicked it up to 68% chance of vict for Trump 287 uh uh electoral votes for Trump how how do you feel right now if you're if you're uh where do you think this is sort of like we we always compare politics to football right so you can be people keep on Twitter and other places they keep mentioning that there was a famous Super Bowl game where it was 28 to3 uh the P the Falcons were beating the Patriots 28 to3 and then all of a sudden out of nowhere the Patriots came back and they won the game and they're saying okay it's early now let's see where do you see where do you think the the Democrats can pick up a state or pick something up where it shifts the momentum for this um significantly here look there's a lot we don't know and there's a lot of places where the vote has where the election where the polls haven't closed closed in Arizona where I think we have some a good number of listeners good number of viewers uh but if you're in line uh I think there they say inline we in New York correctly say online online um you know stay in vote Nevada we don't know what's going on yet um New Mexico we have hardly any of the vote in right now it's it's com Harris is up by four um I think there is a there are there is more out there that we don't know from I'm hearing I'm hearing North Carolina um let's just give a let's give a quick look see Fox Okay Fox is calling it Fox is calling it for the for this the New York Times is North Carol North Carolina has been called by Fox and by decision desk the times hasn't called it yet times hasn't called yet but there's two out of the three three that we look at the the it is a must-win for Harris it's a very important state Donald Trump right now is 1 1.58 one second Ellie 1.58 83 million to 1. 1482 for Harris it's it's Ellie what do you think there I'm I'm I want to slow you down no I'm I'm not nervous I want to slow you down a little bit um but it's not a must-win North Carolina was not a must-win for Harris North Carolina was her best shot um but it doesn't mean she had won it if she won had won it I would have said done nobody I would have said I would have said I would have said close to game over would have won North Carolina again we got we got decision we we got decision Des doing it Fox News doing it um and and and and looking at at um I'm looking right now and I'll try to throw this up on the screen over here this is the um if we can get this on the screen for for our viewers this this is the way the times got it this is the way the times are um the times projects the vote if you look over here North Carolina you can see you can see is currently 54% of the vote in um 80% chance that Trump is going to win so that's very very high but they're not ready to call it yet because if you see if you go to the right of the screen you see the the blue and the Red Tails those are low probability but still possibilities that the vote can still turn that way so you'll see it's it's basically the times making a more responsible call holding off because there's an outside chance that Harris can still win North Carolina um it's not it isn't yet it it isn't it isn't though they're looking at different numbers it's just a level of confidence in their cool so I want to I want to I want to talk talk a little bit about um I want to talk a little bit about uh the from community and haris and Trump and you know there was a lot of debate on our podcast about um where where what we felt and we how we felt the the not just the from Community but the Jewish Community would would respond to both these candidates and I just want to talk about that a little bit whether or not you guys are seeing anything anecdotally whether or not you're hearing anything on this in terms of of the the both the from community and the Jewish communities turnout especially in some of the not turnout but but their their responses they have to the Harrison Trump there was just an and I want to start with you Ellie on this we have we we're going to have a little bit later tonight somebody um a special guest he's he's here but he's he's backstage right now he's in the green room um schomo Shore from from the Agoda who follows this stuff to um a level that you know if if you're not following uh schlomo if you're if you're on X and you're not following scha and you care at all about New Jersey politics one Jersy one Jersey one Jersey sh is good very important you must follow him but Sho was telling me um that four years ago we had in Lakewood the the the turnout percentage was um I forget the numbers but it was incredibly High um you can send on their I if if we can get we're slmo sat next to me before I think what Ellie is alluding to is that schomo has the ability to tell us what's happening in some ofo can tell us yeah schomo can tell us about about the the the Jewish vote in in New Jersey especially do you see you see what kind of incredible live coverage you have we make a point and we can bring a guest right on this is you're not going to get this at Fox News you're not going to get CN we have the ability right here to give you that Insider right into uh what the from voters thinking and and and feeling so we're going to get schl on here for a second but while we yeah it's going to take it's going to take a minute just to to get him out of the Green Room I want to for not for for the for the non-amish non non non non viewers like I think everyone I know who works in politics and tries to turn out the Jewish vote is nervous a little bit nervous about when they're pulling people out who they're going to vote for Pennsylvania and Florida my my you know my mother has been side herself uh with worry um and you know she she lives in a mixed she lives in a community that's mixed lots of not lots of people who aren't sh shabas or anything like that and she thinks uh that they were going to vote for Trump and that's that was a real concern for uh for a lot of people who are pulling out to vote so so like the the Jewish vote you know we I think we know broadly speaking we're going to we're going to know going to know a lot more in a minute about the about the from vote we're going to welcome cuz we just got another person joined us on our set um here we go we got the wide shot schlomo schomo sure is with us schlomo by what what record-breaking time schomo came from Lakewood right here for this what what look at that look at that it's an R interview guys and Ste was just mentioning the Jewish vote I want to mention a surprise race in New Jersey where a race that was not on the radar for congress in the ninth congressional district uh the Jewish vote playing a strong role in now what's now a close race to replace the late Bill P and pic and Patterson which has a strong Muslim Community as well and we're seeing a closer than expected race now too close to call in what was historically a red a blue Democratic District but now the new state senator Nelly po pow is um is uh maintaining just a very slight light lead um which is what the surprise of the night in New Jersey um so here you have the a strong Jewish vote um which is affecting a race in that we were not expecting uh going into tonight but can you talk about that schomo cuz that that area is is when that was happening was the do you feel like that this this this was do you feel like there was sort of an assumption built in that this was going to be a easy sort of shoe in the Jewish vote was going to be that like how do you feel like that was sort of done as an Insider here in Jersey I I agree with that historically this seat uh was very was a a solid seat for Democrats Bill pcell had strong support from both the Jewish community and pic and the Muslim Community in Patterson so going into tonight I guess a little bit was unknown was would his successor now and the Democratic side Nell po be able to M to to keep maintain those relations with both communities and early on it seems like we don't know the reasons yet but the strong Jewish vote from p and it's not all in yet seems to be keeping this 3% votes in we're showing a 12 12,000 vote lead um for Nelly Po and you any talk about that for us is in and again we we one of the things that I know bothers me and I know bothers you also is that there's parts of the firm World across the country you say well I don't live in this little part of of Wisconsin or this little part of and again for the listeners in town I grew up out of town not trying to be offensive I'm just saying that people say I don't live there but why does a m matter why does a paic matter why does a Lakewood matter walk us through these these areas and why it matters someone who knows the numbers we're seeing what a United vote can do for first of all to swing races make races close and as you know well good enough there's a Democratic and Republican primary for governor coming up in the state and with such tiny margins due to the W the large amount of candidates running communities like ours strong communities voting together is going to make a huge huge difference and politicians around the state are paying close attention they contact me they contact you you're you're in close contact with them and you know how close they close attention they pay to these races and our communities who generally vote together as one and and anyone that can do that any community in any race whether it's assembly seat like we saw for Obi schel last year in the New Jersey assembly race or it's a race for congress now in the ninth congressional district you're seeing a strong um a strong show of support from the community when they go together and and and and politicians notice that could you could go I I I wanted to I want to bring back to one thing and then I think we're going to send it back to to the shilly cast um talk to Mich about what we were talking about before we started shooting um and let's talk about you mentioned um the the pcel seat but there's also two other really two other races from New Jersey seats that really interest on one is New Jersey 7 we'll get to it a little bit later um but of course New Jersey 4 um our our dear Congressman Chris Smith um here's a man who's putting a race away um 240,000 votes 6732 how much of that is um credit to what we were talking about on the way in a very very strong turnout from the from communities um in Lakewood and the Lakewood area absolutely get into the the det Chris Smith is as many of you may know the longest serving Congressman in the country of all 435 he does have a great office you get that after serving since he's uh people may forget he served he was first elected did on the day Ronald Reagan was elected to his first term so here he's going to win his 23rd consecutive term tonight easily and that's due to his great constituent Services um I refer many people to his office almost on a daily basis his work on passports specifically immigration are huge issues for him and he treats every case uh with the attention you would think of an incumbent congressman and that shows that shows in his totals tonight and he let's talk about the turnout turnout in the from community and and and getting to to your point the turn the from community to to to stress to your point to underscore your point in 2020 When Donald Trump won Lakewood by the strongest margin he was outperformed by Chris Smith in Lakewood by two points Donald Trump had 82% of the vote in Lakewood the his widest margin in the whole entire State Chris Smith picked up 84% so so um I want to thank uh schlomo for some of that in inside information because there are going to be races next year in 25 race for mayor of New York race for governor of New Jersey so we have to pay attention to these things I just want to give an update before we we throw it back to the schoy cast which is right now it they're showing basically a on New York Times they showing a 6 60 it was 69% now it's back to 66% chance of winning elector college is 285 in pennsylv for Trump in Pennsylvania right now it is getting very close like we said we got to watch Pennsylvania much closer Harris right now with 28.7% of the vote Harris is at a million 82,000 and Trump is at 93,000 we're going to kick it back the scho they can respond to this they can let you know keep the conversation going stay tuned stay here for live election results welcome back everybody if you haven't subscribed yet subscribe to the shikast Channel all the newcomers welcome everybody is welcome first we have a announcement uh from the community within in Texas we have breaking news from Texas senator Ted Cruz has just won re-election for his third term against the Democrat Colin alred this is very exciting was Clos it was close and this is very exciting because a couple years ago there was a scandal where uh Ted Cruz went to Cancun when there was a natural disaster in Texas and since then things have not been the same for him but thank God he is back for another four years and now we're going to bring in a guest guest sh is a friend of the program has been everybody on knows sh you speak English testing testing my mic is good yeah we're talking here in English sh is a very big Trump supporter but he's having a little bit of second out we're in we're totally in all right he looks a little bit what what's making you nervous yeah English try to focus in English for the audience my specialty is in Yiddish but thanks for having me welcome welcome to the most historic most symbolic most ridiculous election of our lifetime what a time to be alive give it to yourselves for 2024 we actually got to the point where America gets to decide between communism and lies and fake victim mental alties to someone who wants to make not just America but the whole world great again as we've seen with President soon to be president-elect Donald Trump has United in the world and in the United States Jews Arabs Indians Latinos blacks young people podcast viewers right yeah yeah also we have to give it also we have to give it for ourselves too while until now everyone who wanted to watch watch anytime any election results they had to tune into the mainstream garbage where they prematurely call and deall states and shape and Vibe the public opinion to a dowy depressing nesa level so we're going to be different this year because we are in dependent media and it's 2024 and every little rer can have their own podcast even Joe Rogan and it makes a difference to young people so welcome aboard to the first ever Yiddish election Night Live result we should give us a round of applause thanks for having me I feel honored it's not easy it's we started we started at night pretty early and what I mean with pretty early is the way Florida came in was very very um not that it's not that it's a factor it should have been um the way Florida went it wasn't a surprise it went twice for Trump but the thing is it went twice for not the winner so the last past two times the left has won without Florida the past time Sor 202020 2020 Florida was a swing state now it's a red State you got to look at the margins now you see the results in Florida we had to wait for Florida at least a few hours there was always issues with the bush in Gore Florida was we got Florida very fast with huge margins which Miami date we fli areas and and and the numbers the differences we beat expectations Trump beat his former expectation polls in certain areas and and he came in better than he came in in 2016 in a lot of places in a lot of places starting with flid Florida was a good indicator what why does that tell us that why that's that tell us that tell us the mood the mood is great at the Republican side I would not want to be Kamala Aris now but but it you're asking me personal opinion it should have been faster it should have been easier but I'm still looking forward to a great end of a celebrator night for us and for the world um you got to take a chill pill guys I know over here our on our map Virginia is SK blue online I'm not I'm not so sure about Virginia it doesn't it doesn't look very good for them but it's it's ridiculously close but some haven't called it yet so that's a good indicator most haven't called it so that's good if Virginia is too close to call but I don't know an hour color o I'm called it col take it off said that that what's it called decision desk decision desk called decision over here we're following decision desk iess AP news did not call AP news did not call it on Google it's not AP News didn't call yet Virginia so we don't need Virginia go out and vote oh no it's cl cl but just to be clear he has many paths to Victory without Virginia Virginia would have been a nice plus indicator where the country is headed right but Virginia what's North Carolina is called North Carina forina called okay does it does it beat does it beat the the points that we need from Pennsylvania because Pennsylvania we still need Pennsylvania so far what we're doing good in Pennsylvania I don't know if we're doing good but we need it we need it New Times gives them gives them a 53% who Trump yes mhm he can lose Pennsylvania Wisconsin and Michigan he can lose no not not he sorry sorry he should lose penl no but he can lose Pennsylvania Michigan and Wisconsin and still make it how Arizona Nevada will he make Arizona Nevada tonight right so you're saying it's indication right right right so the feeling sorry for being pessimistic the feeling for me is if he doesn't score Arizona AA tonight then I hope he doesn't need it he might not need it I don't know if he outperforms everything else say he doesn't get Arizona and and what's it called n tonight then it's probably going to go to them gives them enough time ballots and can we say that can we say that here or we're going to get banned they was they was that if he doesn't take Arizona tonight then they're probably going to steal it somebody said and I think it makes a lot of sense if he doesn't win tonight and it keeps start dragging out all bets are off yeah depends people say that if it's 269 269 which is I don't know did it have happen I don't think if it happened we got to ask the people over at the forecast they know the number Nevada in 2020 went for Biden so we don't need Nevada when Nevada would also be a nice plus mathematically he can be 269 269 I don't think he can yeah 272 in 258 269 26 but which one will I don't know I don't know but uh did you see the uh I've seen Ben Ben Ben Shapiro Ben Shapiro came up with an interesting concept a couple dayso did you see that sorry New York Times just projected um were you getting live up breaking news New York Times now projects Donald Trump to probably hit 312 electoral points okay that's good you only need 27 for very extreme very radical it's a very risky move for New York Times especially coming from them especially coming from anybody look into that the Ben says that uh that Florida should have one more electoral vote and New York one less I I saw that report yeah I don't know read name what is it I there's nothing to SP speak about I only saw it from him and uh he was talking about that as a possibility that if Trump loses there's still a way for them to litigate it in court and add one electoral vote to Florida take one away from somebody else and possibly win the election but it's it didn't make any sense because in 2020 Florida had 29 electoral votes and now they have 30 so I don't know where he was coming from don't these things change every few years based on the redistrict team in 2020 was a census oh 2020 so the sensus should be done in 2021 huh not electoral points electoral points changed electoral points no he claims that Florida should have one more I don't know one more from for them to get one from where should they take it no they have more people the Sens were not counted normally Congressional dist because New York lost some people and Florida this is this is the red state Florida come from for property borders people Del you it's on that note it would also be possible technically for California to lose some cuz people are leaving and going to Red States Texas a lot Texas and Florida could probably get some from California I think California did get lower California was 55 I think back in 2020 and 20160 now now I think it's only 54 it was 55 they did lose an elector M an elector yeah in Florida if we remember 2004 I was getting by MIT then and the FL was very very contestant right to the Supreme Court you were not even me how old are you I'm 34 I'm 30 you're 30 so in 20 am I sitting here was 26 327 months first let's focus on Trump should win yeah and then we'll take it to the a good J a joke never personal um ki ki ki online betting how over they started 76 now it was 67 an hour ago 2 hours ago but Ki Bing is it's nice maybe people pushing desperate mention but Ki is very new it wasn't in the Bing years ago Ki is a new a new a new betting betting is the only legal website you're allowed to bet on elections in in America I think the p pite is only for outside yeah we go ahead okay so let's have a word from our sponsor the Arman hotel in Stanford everybody knows the Arman Hotel I've attended many Simas and events over there over the years they've hosted hundreds of events from SIM dinners Expos business conferences and they are the first choice for any kosher event or gathering looking for the perfect midweek getaway look no further book a stay at the Arman hotel and enjoy our non our on-site restaurant where we serve breakfast lunch and dinner with options to please every taste centrally located we just a short drive from all major Jewish communities let us make your next event or getaway Unforgettable the Armen hotel in Stanford Connecticut yeah it's a good hotel have you been there you've been I've been there many times many I've been there as a guest I've been there performing and it's very convenient it's good food it's it's a great place there is a the failing New York Times is saying a 70% chance Trump wins so what do we do with that we hope according to experts Trump is a is a narrow but clear favorite to win Georgia and North Carolina if he does Harris would need to sweep Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win so from a new YK from a New York New York Times post the Nate cone for New York Times the fake New York Times but failing failing the fake I don't know why we keep on trusting these people calling Arizona at 10:00 last time listen Trump will also take their plls if it works he I only take the good PLL he says he's right why should we I explained it I explained it a few times also on my show also with the reason why we we can't and we should the way we we should been accepting plls is that they always on the perform they always under scor the Republican with like at least 10 points and Trump especially and obviously they gave 92% chance um 16 election night and and and if if and he beat a lot to the expectations which which in in every election almost so we got to expect the polls to be at least a little bit so you got to take ER Plus 5 six points so if they give them anything that means is much higher cuz New York Times estimates uh Trum to win Pennsylvania Michigan by 6 who New York Times estimates Trump to win Pennsylvania Michigan wow that's very significant I was mon how do they how do they how do they know that because they're looking at counties they know which county goes where so they say new NBC News exit poll are saying Trump is making double digit gains with the Latino voters they're currently breaking 53% for Harris and 45% for Trump that's enough in 2020 Latinos went 65 for Biden and 32 for Trump but you got to know you know she didn't take the the governor of Pennsylvania as her running mate he was he was you know he was waiting for the call and they decided by the Democrat Party decided they're not going to go with him at that time it was it was the common uh belief I'm not sure if it's it was true that because of him being Jewish and the Gaza waro one thing and then he's overpowering him a little bit I've heard that her I've heard that uh Obama had to take a dumber vice president so he took Biden right B had to take B had to take Harris Harris take Waltz Waltz will probably have to take a baby next and on and on we go but had she um chosen a a a j Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania Pennsylvania wouldn't be so close for her but let's see if let's see if he can pull it out the the Pennsylvania okay so we're going to have a live interview from the Trump headquarters and just a few minutes but first we want to read another ad from our sponsor help me build credit are you struggling with managing multiple credit cards do you miss due dates have no idea the benefits and and credits your cards have do you wish there was an app to keep track of all your cards card right is your answer the card write app is available in both the App Store and the Google Play Store download it today card write they also have a desktop version for those who don't have smartphones card right figure out how to use your credit cards right galik galik we're going to bring up now you say Turks is from the Trump campaign yeah the chief uh political correspondent for Amy magazine is live at the Trump Campaign Headquarters he's going to be with us shortly can we bring him up now all right bringing him up Jake Jake the oh there he is we see him Jakey hello where are you no we need English Jake English Jake we need English why does the place look empty and you behind here stage where Trump is going to be coming out as soon as he's either declared the winner or he declares that was and he's to be speaking right here that where where are the people why is it so empty uh it's empty because not everybody has the soci it's going to be very long night a lot of people in the back of and stuff and so the people standing here are the take SP and we're here for the long and we ready ready for the president to walk by any Jake how's the mood in the room what does it feel like to be standing there have you spoken to others what are they saying everybody's posibly optimistic they remember what happened in 2016 they remember what happened in 2020 and they also know that there will be some surprises tonight see there's no way to know in which direction surprises they're going what what I will say is that in 2016 at this time of the night the move was very sble they there was no indications at this ear in 2016 that Trump was on the path to Victory so people get Restless they want to see some major the decision coming down as early as possible but it's a long night and there's a lot of gam play so still the line for us uh the people you're talking to what are they saying what is the vibe the vibe is they're all saying the confident that Trump is going to win they're saying it with like a nervous smile on the face so like I said talk to optim uhhuh final question do you think we're going to get results tonight so I'll tell you what to look out for um based on this we can expect maybe results so let's start with uh Virginia Virginia is a state that traditionally was considered a swing state recently it became blue and now it is it is very close haris was was supposed to supposed to win by 56 points according to the polls if Trump is able to win Virginia then that could suggest a a slant in direction that the posters did not account um other than that a lot of the Swing states are not going to report uh any time soon and we probably shouldn't expect results from Pennsylvania or uh maybe Georgia or Arizona Wisconsin tonight a lot kind of states that don't start counting the mail in Ballance and the absentee Ballance until sorry about that um they don't start counting the early ballot until after the election uh the election they B that c those Jake what's the story with Virginia what some people called it but most didn't what's the story with that um so right now I'm looking at a camera screen a camera lens so I don't know what what what are you think of Virginia last I saw um some decision that's called Virginia for Harris okay so so then there you go so you're a few minutes ahead of uh ahead of me because I'm not watching the screen right now I'm watching you guys the Hill Rec the hill is reporting Virginia is for Harris okay so how much how much how much see if Harris wins Virginia by by fewer than five it could still be an indication in favor of trump if he wins it by five or more then it would suggest that the polls were accurate and it would be 5050 uhhuh I just want to I just want to remind you people say that that the um let let me put out this question to you guys would you say the polls in 2020 as far as you remember were the posters accurate or not pretty much yes better than in 2016 much better yeah right so so very good all right I'm actually I'm actually very um good for you that you guys are right everybody else they asked this question got it wrong 2020 in the popular boat the P go up but in the swing stage individual states they were pretty much on Target and so if that is also going to be the case tonight that the swing states are what the pollers say they they're going to be we could expect to have a very very long couple of days or even couple of weeks what I will tell you is that trun team is ready for this they have right now on the ground in Pennsylvania alone they have a team of about 1500 lawyers all right and across the sleet State they have as many as six to 7,000 lawyers and they're ready for the long game very nice just one last question to wrap it up and we'll bring you up later what are Trump's people around them what are they telling him telling you they're telling him that he's going to win so it's actually um um somebody standing next to me I'm not going to say who was on the phone with Trump a little over an hour ago and it was a 40c phone call and um Trump seems to be in good spirits the people I spoke to who spend time with M said that he's very confident then again I wouldn't expect to hear anything else from him thank you very much Jake we'll be B I can switch back to now yeah Mama early Returns the New York show incompetent representative Republican Mike ller and Rockland County and Democrat Pat Ryan and Orange County secur y are winning while Republican Mark melaro in Solan county is losing this is galdi this is fenin D Winston Texas you live in the city and you live in also in the city I Live a month SE it's very important elections I voted for Mike ller and uh very good very good I think he has bigger plans than uh just Congressman right what do you think those plans are huh what do you think those plans are I think he's going to run for governor really yeah I do think so let's dive right into the numbers with live updates with the for with the forecast from Mish back to you guys we're live we're back got it okay we're back and when we had you last it was about 69% was a chance on New York Times for Trump and right now they have it at 73% which I think is uh is very interesting because I don't think anybody in our community would consider New York Times the paper we pick up and read for the most part so when they're saying that I think it's uh they're definitely a left Ling institution um The Electoral College also they have at 289 is what their pred predictions are and then let's go over to Pennsylvania and look at that because that's really where Ground Zero for everything Pennsylvania right now is 42% has reported in listen to this very important 42% is reported in Donald Trump is at 1.4 mil 63,360 votes and KL Harris is at 1.4 61168 so he is ahead by 2,000 votes right now so you see this Shi this shifts a lot which is why we're trying to give you this live but what if I were to tell you that there was bigger breaking news for the from Community than even what happens tonight something that could portend that could forecast something even bigger I want to hand it over to schlomo who has breaking news for us out of Jackson breaking news for us of something that was unprecedented historic groundbreaking happening out of Jackson schlomo Jackson New Jersey just it's the only one Jackson we know only one Jackson know and this is I'll be the first to admit I did not see coming and what we have right now Justin is councilman Morty Bernstein is has been elected by 114 votes to as the first Orthodox Jewish councilman in Jackson Township now what's Aston what what sticks out here is an astonishing 90% turnout from the Orthodox Jewish community in Jackson which has approximately 45 4600 voters 90% turnout to put him over to the Top by just 114 votes if anyone needed a more dramatic example of every vote counts you got it here tonight this race might tighten slightly with the remaining provisionals and mail C ballots to be counted which would even underscore the point even further but his history tonight in Jackson Township where Morty Bernstein has been elected the first Orthodox Jewish council member that's great news that is that is amazing news and and also for those of us who live in the area um something we had hoped for if not anticipated mean this was this is legitimately the best case scenario um for the from community in Jackson on every level just the the win and the turnout number it would itself be great and historic but this is amazing and we might have some some data later in in the show about Jewish vote and Jewish turnout um I I want to just I want to shift just away from deer for a second just to to bring up one point um that some we discussed a little bit earlier we had we had talked about the state let me see if I can try to pull it up but we we had talked about the poll that came out um in you know this week that gave me you know a lot of agma snappish um which was the state of of of of um of Iowa and the Selzer pole the Selzer pole we said found 4% lead for KL Harris um the the polls closed in again just at 10:00 we it's stand closed in um Montana big Senate race there Nevada very important state and Utah but bring us back to to um to Iowa and I'm going to throw it up on the screen so everyone can see it um currently 34% of the vote in Trump and Harris neck and neck but again knowing which um which precincts are in and which aren't currently here's your New York Times projection um 91% chance of a trump win and um estimated margin of Victory 8.9% but as you see the variable over there goes from Harris plus 5 which Stu will um hang his head on it's not going to happen still but up to to Harris to to Trump 22 oh we see some early gloating here from Ellie right right early on early gloating not quite spiking the football just yet little early a little early Al a little early but uh but yeah that's that's something to see now the the states that we said close now um again we have Nevada just give historically we don't know Iowa's numbers until about midnight East Coast time corre we don't know we don't really know what's going on we don't know 95% of the votes were in by midnight so and now we're at what did we say 35% 35% of the vote there's votes left to be counted and look the hard part you know people ask how do these polls get you know how how are the polls how is this poll so wrong how how is that that poll wrong how is any poll wrong look any of us anyone listening could write a poll writing a poll is not the hard part and here's a secret pollsters aren't the ones who are actually Fielding the poll they have a just companies that do that for all the the hard part is getting the turnout model right sample there hard part of saying well I think it's going to be X not y not y not X so you have a state like Iowa where you have the vice presidential candidate for the Democrats governor of the state right above some some some parts of that Shar TV and other media markets he grew up in Nebraska it's a state just to the left of it just to the west of it it's hard to build these models in defense of ancestor it's hard to build these models these are unprecedented times there hasn't been a a a a a a local person running for office for in a presidential race for a long time this that's a great let's talk I know it's great that that St brought this up because it wasn't something that we were really by the way New York Times now has Trump at 75% chance of winning on their election desk and I think the reason why that's happening why do we think that's the reason why happening I think I got to look at Pennsylvania Pennsylvania is is just getting much much tighter Michigan too Michigan also is um yeah if she if he was what what steu steu if you're if you're watching them and you're you're worried about a Harris um Victory and you're you're you're you're looking at this and you're saying how what are Harris is Harris has pass the victory if it's 75% what where how does she pull this off how does she come back from that look it's it's it's you know last we heard in Pennsylvania places like we said the last hour Chester County weren't even weren't even weren't even done voting yet there' been some irregularities machines had broken we don't know there still there's still tup pania still tup there a lot 60% you think there's a wave you think there's a red wave you seeing a red wave you still you know I'm hoping for that but this is the point that I think that maybe we should talk about for this is where I wanted to get before we we brought up um Pennsylvania because Stu brought up making a model in a poll and this is where um a lot of the polls got things wrong and probably the best you know the best way to talk about it we can use the Selzer pole as as as a good example but um we had in New Jersey and and and myy definitely um will remember and appreciate this but we had in 2021 um a Governor's election um our governor Phil Murphy ran for reelection um against essentially who was at the time very not so well-known backbencher assemblyman Jack Chelli um Monmouth poll a local New Jersey poll very highly regarded pulled it found um Murphy was going to win the race by anywh from 8 to 11 points and he was very off and I spoke to Patrick Murphy who P Patrick Murray who's the the pollster at mouth after the race for an article that I wrote in mishak and it it it very much is important for our race what he said he said and I asked him I said why why do polls keep on making this Miss in 2016 in 2020 and then 2021 in the New Jersey race it happened as well but but where's this this miss that the polls keep on making where they seem to to to continually U overestimating the the strength of the Democrats and underestimating the the strength of the Republicans and what he pointed out was it wasn't a Democrat Republican thing necessarily as much as it was a a um kind of a trump thing and that Dynamic played out in the Chelli race as well in the Murphy Chelli race well as well which is that there's a certain voter and everybody knows this type of voter but a certain voter who who doesn't get animated about politics except for the things except for Trump and also for the things that Trump is is active about so it's very hard for the pollsters to then go and and create a model of an electorate to say okay so if I get um you know I have a model of a thousand people who I have to contact I have to contact this many white people this many of those white people have to be making this amount of money they have to be living in in cities or in in Villages etc etc and it very hard to pin down that type of VOR because there's no real good model for that and that leads to an oversampling of Democrats and undersampling of Republicans and why in 2016 um there was a polling Miss and in 2020 a polling Miss and that was the polling miss that we were looking forward to happening over here and also the Selzer poll what happened and we're finally get it ready in the States you ask me more if there's going to be a red wave that's where I see the potential what happening is that even the in the in the states which we're already in more or less is where we're kind of seeing it it's not as pronounced but we're seeing that there's this kind of underrepresentation of a republican voter that wasn't really quot does that mean that Pennsylvania Wisconsin and Michigan are going to have that as well it doesn't because those are a very it's it's we talk about regions so we we we just started getting some more more um coverage in uh from Arizona we started getting some of that vote that electoral vote in also Arizona right now is at 34.3% of expected vote and you have um it looks like almost tied basically 621 131 to 62191 I mean it's practically 40 votes to separate the two of them in Arizona um but there's a lot of ways to go with that when you look at uh some of the other states that we we're looking at North Carolina Trump's Up by Four Points there um Wisconsin Trump's up right now in Wisconsin as well um The New York Times has the has Trump at a 79% chance of V of Victory with 295 Coral College votes which obviously is more than he needs um if if steu what do you where if go like we feel like we've been doing this a long time we feel like we've been doing this for hours it's it's it's it's uh 9 it's 1010 on the East Coast New York polls have been closed for 70 minutes and polls actually probably haven't been closed because people are waiting online right um and like we've been talking about Virginia since our first little time first time we were out here tonight Richmond Virginia predominantly Democratic City still only 20% 21% of the vote is in we don't know how 79 we don't we aren counting 79% of the vote for Richmond we know it's likely to be overwhelmingly Democratic it's why we've been talking for hours about Virginia and how crazy SL concerning it is that Donald Trump's up by you know 25,000 30,000 V vs which is not one of anyone's model was but we also like are missing parts of Fairfax County but also the Democratic stronghold this happens a lot in Virginia that these cities come in late and that we see a red Mirage a blue Mirage in this case we're seeing a red Mirage for other states where we're seeing a blue Mirage it's really before like you know if you like we're not saying stay up with us all night because you probably shouldn't do that but you should but like but like a lot can change in an hour everything that we everything that that Mor and and Ellie are saying is true but a lot can change yeah things things can change things can change but we will also just remember the models that the again the reliable people people like the times yeah um Nate con good at what he does the needle we know right people were freaking out in in 20 in in 2016 about um but good at what he does good at modeling very transparent when you go on on the thing I'm GNA pull it up um you go on the site you look at how he goes through each of the states if we can get it up on the screen um if you go through each of the states he has each of the the states that are still out the percentage of votes that are in the percentage and then you see the to be clear it's a whole team of people there's a there are whole floors of people in the New York towns building that do analytics on this 100% 100% his team he's leading his team um and and and here you go that's why he's showing 40 4% of the vote in he has a projection that it's more likely than not Trump almost a point ahead but doesn't mean that he's a point head no it doesn't mean he's a point head because it couldn't swing with those kind of unknown um kind of counties um my do you have any any um uh Insight in in Pennsylvania um especially because it's going to come down we know this it's going to come down to Pennsylvania Pennsylania penssylvania Nevada we're going to talk about a little bit because um there's a lot to talk about the early vote and what came in from where we'll get to that it just closed but let's talk a little bit in Pennsylvania the Jewish vote in Pennsylvania how much that that matters I think it matters tremendously and I I believe there's there's ex of polls are coming out that are showing basically that oh the the Jewish Community votes overwhelmingly for the Democratic party and underwhelmingly for the Republican Party first off I I think just similar to the polling that we see I think there's a tremendous amount of the Jewish Community they're polling in New York and they're polling in all kinds of places California California these are not swing areas they're not what should be pulled ex of polling should be done in swing areas like the popular vote exactly exactly so we're hoping to have a little more Nuance on that soon and we're working on some stuff to have some new Nuance on that but um but we had a very major turnout effort in Pennsylvania and what we saw was not what was being reported in those exit polls was not what being reported we saw people from very much since the second that Shapiro wasn't picked there was major concern not just in the fir Community but in the non-r community as well about the fact that people felt like that that there there was there were there were people who were attacking Shapiro because he was Jewish and that there was a feeling like he wasn't picked because he was Jewish and that really impacted the community's perspective on this race and there is a feeling that that that that that was sort of the end for a lot of people and there was there's also just a feeling in general that this is that people's vote that that the Jewish community's votes are not just are up for grabs that they should be talked to that they they have concerns they have concern about anti-Semitism one of the biggest things we heard from his people have a lot of concerns about the left wing of the democratic party which is something that we're dealing with across the country um and and and I think that that that's also going to play a fact as well but I think that when you look at at Pennsylvania and how close Pennsylvania is right now which if you just pull up if we pull up Pennsylvania right now it is it's within 75,000 votes it's within 75,000 votes and Trump is right now with 50% done and 50% done over 50% 50.6% Trump is up a little bit and every vote matters um I think the Jewish Community with the largest swing state in the country tremendously matters Ellie um and so I think I think that it's it's our community is is going to have an impact on this race and I've been saying that since since day one and I continue to say it but I think what that the larger headline for people watching this is that like schomo said the fact that Jackson voted at 90% we saw earlier in the year in Westchester in The Bowman ladimer race there was a a sh that voted at 90% we there's a big race in in Long Island where we we know that some of the shes they voted at 90% talk to me Stu about what happens if a Jewish community in New York votes at 90% talk about me what happens in terms of theil race and things like that next year I mean talk to me what happens if the Jewish Community turn out as big like we're seeing in some communities look it's good for the I mean it's you know good for the it's good for the Jews it is it is good for the Jews there are look in a maral race there are um there a always historically a lot of Jewish voters um not all of them vote as Jews a lot of them don't vote a lot of them tell pollsters that they're Hindu or musl or or or or Buddhist or something like that um but when you see a community that is able to pull out its people use its social connections say use our our our our our neighborhoods our our our our our um our shs our schools not not using the the institutions but using the the social con connections we have from these schools and pull out an enormous number of votes look I mean like half the country is not voting and we are voting at 90% it's an extraordinarily powerful thing and and you know if you uh when you're an elect official coming in or you're a potential elected official coming in you want to know who you can make a deal with you want to know who you can talk to and who you on who you can rely on and who's going to who's going to come out there for you and be there with you um and and that is something that like that's what that's why the work you're doing is so important and to speak exactly to I remember a year ago we had in Lakewood when when aial ran for assembly um and the con of turn at that we had in Lakewood in the F Community um to basically really to propel him into office um over the the um the votes of the communities surrounding Lakewood um it it got noticed I mean David wildstein um a little bit inside baseball but from in New Jersey um talking about talking about ai's and new Brian back you know and and just in awe of the turnout of of the L community and the electeds notice when Jewish Community but especially the F Community goes out to vote the electeds notice MH and they respond and they respond and that's why it's very important you know you always hear and people have all the reasons why you know they they're they're busy they're this they're that we can go on and on about it's important to vote even if you don't think that the race is up for grabs still important to vote because electeds see who's voting and we had schlomo here before very often even in races that are long shots you can actually swing the race um with that yeah we're going to kick it back over to the other guys um we we're going to kick it back over a SCH cast um we're we're going to we're going to have a Commercial Bank in 1 again I just want to give you an update again we appreciate everyone staying tun staying tuned to us here like I said right now New York Times has a 78% chance of victory for uh Donald Trump uh projecting right now 295 Electoral College votes which is obviously more than enough to win subject to change subject to change subject to change less than half the vote in Philadelphia 100% Georgia they're projecting as likely R North Carolina they're projecting as likely R Virginia they're protecting as likely D um Pennsylvania's toss up Arizona's lean Republican Wisconsin is a tossup and Michigan is a tossup and we have a lot of race left to go here so it's we're we're not even I would say in the second quarter third quarter this is a lot we're not in the third quarter we're not even in the third quarter definitely not in the third quarter quarter we're going maybe maybe approaching the maybe approaching the half after the commercial you're going to hear from the guys at schoy cast are going to give us all of the live breaking news expert analysis and give you a little behind the scenes everything going on we'll see you soon meet David this is d David's phone David finds out about crazy deals from forwards to his family chat and is always a minute too late don't be a minute behind sign up to be the first to the craziest airline deals credit card offers and online deals join pz deals today download the pz deals app and never pay full price [Music] again here's yet another winner for tonight in a decisive outcome based on tally votes help me build credit has emerged as the clear winner in the race as the most comprehensive website that will help you choose the card with the best offers and benefits billions and billions and trillions have elected us as the preferred choice for navigating the complex world of credit cards visit help mybuild credit.com the most obvious choice to make your cards great again the votes used to prepare this information have been submitted exclusively by living individuals [Music] n [Music] so we're back we're back before when when we started the program I'm we discussed about Virginia that Virginia would indicate if it goes straight to Harris or it goes straight to Trump or if it's even too close to call over here our decision does did not pull it but a few of the other ones who predicted who gave Virginia to Harris they pulled it back yeah that's a good sign that's a very good sign even if it's too close to call again we not we don't need to hang up to they took it off so we took it off we took it off as well I don't know if we took it off yeah we took it off we took it off we took off Virginia all right you know Lama Zayn let's pull out a win every vote counts right that's what they said we still counting the votes and every vote count whatever if you're in any and if you're in any are any district and you're watching us and still possible to vote in your area and you know anyone you might know or yourself that has not voted yet get your visa off the couch and go vote right now and go vote for Donald Trump all the all the watchers from Nevada and Arizona and California maybe also we need a popular vote too right oh uh NBC News exit poll in the state of Wisconsin shows that Trump has doubled his support among black voters in the state in which state Wisconsin Wisconsin Wisconsin why I predicted uh why I'm predicting her to win is because the Latino him or her it makes a difference him him him the orange man um Wisconsin and uh the the Latino vote and the black vote are tremendously shift towards him and uh that will make a big big difference and so problem for them yeah they need the black vote they need the Latino vote they need all of that right and Michigan probably the ironically enough the the Arabs will get the Muslims will give it to for Trump probably that is incredible actually to think that the man who said would be a Muslim ban is now getting endorsed by Muslim clerics and imams and people of the Muslim faith is is kind of fascinating it just shows you that and you never know what kind of curveball can come our way and therefore there's no reason to be afraid CU hasem knows what's good for us and he's going to make it good for sure let's remember her first rally I think it was in Michigan and there was a protest about the Gaza war and she scolded them that was a huge mistake from her she could could have broken off from uh Biden on that she she you remember that one she was calling them am I talking are you talking that's that's not a way to go with in in such a sensitive thing so but what what is she going to say she doesn't really stand for anything you see she say I'm with you she ran different ads in Pennsylvania and then she ran different ads in Minnesota I think it was in Minnesota Michigan right so she clearly doesn't know what she wants she just wants to get the vote they want to stay in power they left if they could eliminate elections all together they would they would eliminate it right they don't like elections elections is the one thing standing in their way anyway but there hasn't there's no bigger contrast between these two campaigns yeah Trump is running his campaign and and and Harris is running her campaign they're both making rallies I've not been to one you've been to rallies shy yes yeah I've never been to a rally um I've I've seen them how it's going but you were recently as both of them Side by Harris and side by trumps I wonder know by Harris it's a campaign of Joy it's a party of Joy that's what we're told and by Trump it's a lot of chaos and massagy so what was your experience by the rallies so last week Wednesday I woke up and I decided that I wanted to go to a trump rally I realized that whether Donald Trump wins or loses this is his last time campaigning the rallies have always looked fun and I wanted to attend one so I flew to Chicago drove to Wisconsin I waited in line for hours but what was interesting was that the energy at the Trump rally was incredible was actually a very historic Trump rally because he showed up in the garbage suit one only one out of hundreds of rallies where he wore a regular suit that one the orange man wore an orange vest and it was a fascinating thing to see how he was using the words that Biden used against him to troll them back with his garbage man marus stick he is a marketing genius and the energy was very good I was expecting things to be a little bit duller and calmer by kamla the next day so I flew to Arizona on Thursday I attended a kamla rally I must say the the crowd was very energetic very excited to see her however there were some interesting things that I noticed for example number one Donald Trump basically talks about himself when he's on the stage he's talking about himself yeah interestingly enough kamla Harris also talks about Donald Trump the entire time she's on stage and essentially this election is not about Trump or kamla it's about Trump if you like him you're going to vote for him if you don't like him you're going to vote for her but kamla Harris um doesn't seem to have much to offer to her voters and they're not really voting for her in my opinion they're voting against Trump we going to see how much America loves or hates Trump we're going to find out hopefully in the next few hours but it's kind of looking good for him right now an amazing thing that I've heard uh in 2016 uh somebody was commenting on where Mitt Romney was running in uh when 2012 he was so uh worried about hiding the fact that he's a rich guy and here comes Trump and it says Mitt Romney is not rich I'm rich that so what what is it what is it it's the it's the realness of it we got to make an announcement we have breaking news Georgia they're calling Georgia for Trump and North Carolina and North Carolina North Carina was we knew she was going to make it but Georgia Georgia is a big one n just got better 238 48 58 68 is 32 electors away from back being back in the White House you getting back got better decision back has called decision desk we could take decision desk we had to pull back before decision desks who called Virginia was that also decision desk no the visin is still not cold I see great vision so we can't really trust no I'm saying that Georgia was not C50 we'll take it though we'll take we love it we need it what does Trump say we like the good polls we like the good polls I I I I feel it's very important to mention and help me out everybody yes I started saying it before you're not running you're not voting for camela or for Trump yeah they're the face Breaking News NBC called Iowa the Selzer Selzer said I've heard I've heard SEL is engaged to liman Selzer is engaged to liman you know liman and his keys liman sounds like someone I'm not sure I know drk drink too much this is m i in 2020 a big deal Mish it it changed the mood remember M shabas everybody got because I everybody was waiting for the Seltzer Poll for some reason that Seltzer they know in Iowa Kenzie a rose and she said she gave Harris and then on a video she didn't know what D and R is that video saw that it's amazing so so Iowa Iowa Trump I think Trump held it in 2020 and in 2016 don't quote me I have to check the numbers do but I think so either way Iowa was a big part of the mood yeah Trump carried it in 2020 but eight points so I don't know if who molash was anyway but what I do want to say sorry New York Times says Michigan leaning Republican Michigan okay Michigan is also is also important Michigan is that uh that he put up we're not voting for Trump or for camela when Trump gets into office he appoints 10,000 people in various kind of jobs in government and the same is with camela the president it's not just them but they put in people in power the whole camela campaign the whole camela situation is the Ala Democrat the old democracy as they call it yeah the cabal supposedly but not yeah the people who were put in charge after the second world war and I feed NATO and they the UN it's one big cabal and they want to continue that and they're putting in C if you have a doubt that that's true who's president now the same people who will be president of camela wins exactly because there is no cruise control in Cru contr no matter who they are they're terrible people terrible terrible American hating people they lie to us about Biden's State of Mind forever openly they knew that it was something and now no one is in charge Kamala is not even running a campaign but she surely is not running the country because if she was then look what a mess it is then you know she has to distance herself to change they not going back turning the page she says M you saw the language Obama was using in rallies he repeated the charlott's FI again it was debunked by leftist websites you know yesterday as late as yesterday he was still debunking light knowingly that he is lying so you have a guy that that was you know when he won the first time he was twice impeached uh uh prosecuted raided his home um they shot him they shot him twice and he drove a garbage truck and he served in McDonald's what a what a what a comparison what a what a contrast very different that's what I before that Mitt Romney was hiding his riches and he was he was not only not hiding it but saying Mitt Romney wasn't Rich enough I'm rich and people the regular um farmers and everybody because he's real he's a real person he talks what he thinks even if you disagree with him but you know exactly where where you walk with him right and he is a real threat to all to to to this cabal to these people running the cont to their bureaucracy yes a threat to bureaucracy if you change that word every time they said democracy you listen to them everything starts making sense you know what happened in 2016 in 2016 happened a weird thing a man won the president and he actually decided I'm the president and that Washington cannot take yeah you know otherwise like if I can invoke uh Vladimir Putin no uh take s side on on him at all here but he said once and and it's very true uh they asked him about if he won which president he which person he wants to be president he says in America it doesn't matter who's a president you can win and then the people with the black briefcases are coming in and it's over not with Trum not Trump trump you can't buy not with Trump so Trump is a threat to this whole cabal yep so when you're voting you don't think Trump gave something for the nians by taking Bolton by giving money for Ukraine he tried he tried he probably tried working with them negotiating with them he was I said he the problem with the first time with Trump was kind of my only that I think he was too naive he came in he was a good guy so he had good intentions so he trusted the process he trusted the system and he came in and he was kind of comfortable with the way the staff was around him he didn't know there was actively people trying to sabotage his campaign he he didn't know how far it was corrupted how far the Deep state was how deep of a swamp it was he campaigned that drain the swamp and he did somewhat of a good job with the Supreme Court and and most of the judges and and also in the world whatever the world order and everything but but they were working against him to to to backou you know to bury him and when he came out when he came out of that after January 6 he openly started to see and feel in his own blood and and and and bones how far and how evil they are and how bad their intentions are with everything with vaccines with mind control with uh population control and and you know and now he's learned it and I think he's coming in way if think he's going to be more more of a populous this time he's not going to be more popul he's going to be more of a conser more rightwing he's going to implement he's going to work faster he's going to be more like the Democrats obviously will call him more Extreme More radical but I think he's going to be way better for our country he's going to be something the the Republicans will remember just as like now every Republican knows Ronald Reagan is the I think in 100 years from now Donald Trump is going to be Ronald Reagan time stand I say I say buy his merch if you can still or his coins because it's going to be worth a lot of Mone some popular baseball players they won a few games and their baseball cards and coins and stuff 100 years later are worth millions people are literally Rich of that it's is Mass business of selling coin but can't you make more of I said regardless let's let's let's be honest regardless if he wins tonight or not not and I probably he probably would but regardless his merch and his the stuff he makes are going to be worth a lot more than they are today so I think it's a good investment that's not a paid ad but yeah Z can make sure it's authorized by the Trump campaign so it's not faked and people trying trying to from Amazon make sure it's real stuff and I think I think we'll offer a good uh uh rest of the history for our country until mashiah comes by do you think that Trump also calm down a lot with his rhetoric because because he is uh older or what do you think that is because it's not a 2016 campaign right very different it kind of was but in different ways he used better tools strategically he used better tools he got Elon Musk and Robert Kennedy and Tulsi gber and Joe Rogan he did it strategically way more aggressive but his tone kind of toned down the reason for that is a few things yeah combination of what you guessed probably his age also um it he doesn't look physically like he's out of shape I mean last night I heard Donald Jr was on an interview with uh Steven Crowder and Dan banino and he said his father pulled an all nighter he said last night he came home he couldn't sleep it was joking around he was laughing around and in the morning 6 o00 Dan Junior wakes up early for an appointment for some interview and he's like Dad what's wrong with you and he's like no we're going to win this we're going to win this he was in a good mood um he's in shape um I think I think there's another thing by the way there's much less protest Trump is a reactionary type of uh person he reacts to what you're giving him if you fight him he'll fight you back if you're nice with him he's going to be probably also told him a lot around this campaign to like calm down to catch the normal Christian from voters and I think I think he's scoring on that tonight but you can see it's taking a toll on him he lost his voice two days ago he was out remember he Trump 57% in Pennsylvania has been counted and Trump is up by how many by 3% all right prop one passed to New York what does that mean I have no idea what does that mean I spoke I spoke to my sister today and she told me about her friends she's like people don't know what they're voting for they're reading and they see like funny words like equality and stuff and yes oh my gosh I want equality they didn't I voted no but uh you know unfortunately but hopefully we're going to have a good country so it's not going to affect us too much so in a minute we're going to throw it back to our forecast guys but now we want to have a word from our sponsor positive Tech Solutions this is actually a good friend a couple good friends of mine Sam feder and others who run this company and you know when we're talking about the election it's not just who's going to govern America who's going to rule this country but there's a lot of other things that are up in the ear for example cyber security if Trump wins he's going to be enforcing tariffs on certain countries and certain companies and that can affect the kind of Technology you get the companies you're going to be able to buy from or companies that are going to get banned over here and when your cyber security is at risk your entire business your entire livelihood and your safety can also be at risk positive Tech Solutions has been doing this for years they are ahead of the curve they're always one step ahead and they know how to keep you safe your business safe your technology safe and your family safe they provide multiple divisions they have three divisions manag Services cyber voice business phones and compliance they provide tailored cyber security network network protection and compliance Services across the East Coast what sets them apart is their clear communication proactive support and a straightforward compliance process through which positive Tech keeps company safe and secure having not had a single breach to date that is unique they saved clients Millions by identifying potential threats before hackers can positive Tech Solutions your trusted Partners in Tech always staying ahead to keep you secure now let's go back to the forecast guys from mishak welcome back and as you can all see we just had the the call of Iowa so to celebrate the Selzer pole we have enough Seltzer for everybody we we we'll give it out we'll give it out after the segment um I want to bring up we was we were talking about the the different different states even the states that aren't swing States and what you can look at those States and potentially learn about the race potentially potentially big word potentially as the night goes on the way things are going Stu is going to lean more and more into the word potentially um but um I'm going to bring up a graphic now from the times that's right here on the screen if we can pull it up for our for our list for our viewers um how about we could use the whole screen this is this is the country and this is this is a very good graphic that they give us um the Red Arrows basically show the degree of the shift in the vote since 2020 m to the right so you look at this at this at this map obviously you look at Florida Florida's is Shifting incredibly to the right but you look at the entire um East Coast um up until you get into um you know even even into Maryland um and a little bit into New Jersey which we spoke about earlier today you see a lot of shift to the to the Republican to the Republican side of things obviously in the west coast this is all um blank because for the most part P there's also a lot of blanks in here look right here see this the middle of Pennsylania m not the middle and psylvia this is Philadelphia kamla Harris is leading by 300,000 votes and only 50% of the vote is coming in so that's do the roughly thousands of votes in Philadelphia County Chester County uh Montgomery County these are places that are slower to report generally generally places that have more people it is a it is a complicating factor and uh they are they they don't report as quickly most of these places Florida deeply concerning but like Mo most of these places right here you can actually see in this map where you can see where Atlanta is you can see where Savannah is it's all the white spaces all the empty spaces where we have the data yet and but what not we don't have the data yet we have the data we don't we don't see the shift you're saying that only the the Republican counties as we votes are in and everywhere else they were in't in I want to just I want to take a a quick second cuz we got a notification on the screen um as we were talking that Kansas was called for Trump no surprise but you can add it to tally right but this this is this is a place where almost all the votes are in they're not doing this for on partial votes we don't know any we don't have any philadelph Philadelphia is not going to you know Philadelphia is not going to show up as a move to the left or the right but it's you know Trends you know if you're 10% we see these numbers that in Wisconsin uh Donald Trump has tripled his support among African-Americans we heard in one of these those exits right it could be we did see also could be but we're talking some you know like in some cases we're talking about some really small numbers Gentlemen The Arrow is 88% right now likely Trump on the New York Times it's it's they've got Georgia likely R obviously North Carolina likely R they've got Arizona leaning R Wisconsin leaning R Michigan leaning R and I saw leaning oh yeah Wisconsin and they said so I saw this this tweet from a Politico uh editor uh Steve Shepard who says that Donald Trump's leads across the sunb backgrounds appear to narrow Harris's path and electoral col majority to three Northern Tier swing St Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisin Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisconsin so we're now talking about um I I want to say one thing just as we're quoting exites one one second I'm not I'm not I'm not I just want to I want to just let's just dig in here before you get to exit polls here Michigan is that where we're at now at this point of the night like I understand we're a lot of caveats and we're going back and forth and things like that but again Trump Donald Trump is winning right now yeah if this if this holds up this isn't leaning this is this is likely this is likely likely right now it's likely Trump is is winning right now is likely Trump is winning and they're saying that there's the is it down to these straight three states do we agree to that is down at bichigan pennslvania Wisconsin is that her path to Victory left um I would say one thing I would add that um they they don't have I mean not a lot of of of vote came in from Arizon yet um the basis is probably early vote and and different historic projections I would have a little bit less confidence in I have a little bit less confidence in this 77% R Arizona than I do in let's say Georgia North Carolina which are which are done um so I would say it would come down to really the way it is on the screen now if we can get a shot um where where I can you could see what I'm pointing to but if if these three states Arizona Wisconsin and Michigan if Trump wins those three yeah it's game over he doesn't have to win all three if Trump wins um no he he would he probably would because it wouldn't be enough if he wins either 10 or 15 if he doesn't win Pennsylvania and Nevada Pennsylvania is 19 that's why that's key but if he wins Michigan and Wisconsin it's game over it's good night and then and then political obviously has an interesting thing also they put up with is all the presidential paths to Victory they show that that Trump has 95 ways to win Harris now has 87 ways to win which is obviously different than the start of the night um we uh so if Trump pulled us off he's only the second president to ever do this right it's him and Grover Cleveland no one else ever pulled this off yep both New Yorkers both New Yorkers all right is let's just talk about something is is the most predict assuming Trump wins is the most predictable predictable narrative next week that they should have ran Biden is that going to be the narrative narrative going to be they should have ran Biden or the Open primary no no most predictable um narrative is going to be should have picked Josh airo should have picked Josh airo especially since there's there's if he wins Pennsylvan by less than four points which he probably will and there was polling data out I have it just I can't throw it up on the screen but um 4% of um of of of Voters said in in this poll in Pennsylvania said they switched um to supporting Donald Trump and JD Vance um because of the lack of the Shapiro pick obviously small sample size yada yada but should have picked Josh I've been super optimistic about a lot of things that haven't come out come to fruition yet I still don't see uh knowing what we know about where the votes are but haven't been counted yet how he wins Pennsylvania it's really it's it's possible but it's close I mean he's up by 160,000 votes in Pennsylvania and we know that there are at least 200 100,000 votes in Pittsburgh in in in in in Philadelphia proper say nothing of the counties around Philadelphia I I just I'm not so sure about it it is going to be a really close night and it's going to be I mean it's going to be a really close few days so I'm gonna I'm going to pull up this handy graphic from the times um times is showing um almost all the votes um more this is this is a graphic of of where the votes are remaining so like Stu saying around Philadelphia a lot of votes remaining but they also have um you know in in other counties such as um in your county we know Bucks County was showing up as as being um um very high on on KL Harris but that should break closer to Trump based on what we know um so really Philadelphia um Pennsylvania I mean um is really more of a wild card to know where it is we have to see again this is why projections aren't totals projections are in totals and um I'll say that we should not um should not Bank on a state until it's called and again Stu who's wearing his Gore liberman 200 sweater vest will tell you don't count on a a race even after it's cold I like I like I like I like to put the predictions out there and let the audience responded I like a little different if we talk about the Senate here for a second McCormack's up now in the Senate oh is um McCormack is up right now with 60% obviously the they're in they've Republicans have flipped West Virginia the Republicans have held um the Florida um Ohio is is the Republicans up in Ohio as well um Cruz is won um in in Michigan the Republican is up in Michigan just by a little bit um in Arizona it's just I I think it's the Democrats up here in Arizona um we we we it looks like basically what you have here is you have I I think I think it's not too early to say that I mean it look it looks like the Republicans are taking the Senate also am I am I wrong in saying that no that's fear I think that's fear steu I I'd love to hear your take look I mean we don't know until we don't know we don't know until we I mean like it is it was always a uh a a tough path uh for victory I mean but you know in Montana we have 5% of the vote in we don't really know what's Nebraska Nebraska actually know if I'm going to make I'm going to make St Knight a little bit maybe maybe get him um to feel a little bit hopeful 54% of the vote in in Nebraska Deb fiser the incumbent Republican trailing Dan Osborne the huge ear quotes here nonpartisan independent who's really a Democrat um but doesn't want to call himself a Democrat cuz he would not be able to win in Nebraska but he he has 231,000 votes um and he's he's he's ahead right now do do we think that holds I can't see it holding but crazier things Happ I can't mic holding but it might correct we've seen like I said we we've seen crazier things happening Wisconsin 57% in Hy is only trailing Baldwin by .1% mhm um Ohio we said like like Stu said Republicans up by five um I think Bernie Moreno can start um measuring drapes um Michigan also yeah Ohio's Ohio may be is not done but Ohio if if Ohio's a red State I've spoken to a lot of people who are in that race and if have it they they called it from Mareno like 45 minutes ago a while ago they're very very confident in that race um yeah he's up five I mean how are we looking about the house how do we feel about the house I have not been taking a look at this or so we had a big call in in New Jersey um there's there's right now Tom Keane Tom Keane was um um while was was called his that he won his re-election so that was a big race um that would be um New Jersey 7 Tom King Jr um Republican um Congressman um running against um Sue Alman um and he's up by 20,000 votes with 85% of the votes in um wildstein thinks it's one so so I guess you could say it's one um but otherwise the the house is going to take some time to to Really we don't know there's a lot of a lot of stuff out especially California California will not have results until sometime close to the next election so that's not true but but but how long does it usually take to get results from California St it takes a while but like you know weeks that's the crazy thing because we have and stud not we apologize to all the officials the election officials in California are watching this we apologize apologize he's 100% right I'm joking he's 100% right takes you guys could apologize it takes forever it takes forever but this is something this is something that that really there's no excuse for um you know but but you know it's hard Florida has 100% of the votes counted already and it counted more votes than any state I know Ste is not Florida Florida who killed Democracy in America okay but the 2000 the 2000 election but but it's been a while since then there's this new govern they haven't blown up the world they haven't they haven't they haven't thrown the White House and and and and sent us into a a war we shouldn't have been in in the Middle East in in in two and a half decades it's been a while so we we've we've got uh the times is showing it's about 87% chance of a trump Victory 298 electoral uh votes is what they're projecting um if we go a little do a little bit of a deeper dive into into some of the areas you know we can get a little more interesting here so for example in um in Pennsylvania right now there are 64% is in and Trump is up by about 10 and 103,000 votes still very early extremely early for for Pennsylvania everything that we see in Pennsylvania if we go and we look at um Still Still Still almost 48% of the of the of the of the uh 38% of the vote in in Philadelphia on very close in Michigan Trump is up with 25% uh voting and we have um I want to throw something up on the screen just just to talk about the the the way the race has shifted and and in States so we before we kick it back and and and mor you'll appreciate this um look look at this is New Jersey me and my both both live in New Jersey again I'm going to say this my lives in North Jersey I live in Central Jersey which is a thing no such thing which is a thing no such thing um but K Harris right now with 82% of the vote in leading by five five and a half points okay so comfortably winning the state of New Jersey five and a half points um so why is this important for us to look at um 2020 Joe Biden won the state by 16 points right okay this this stay this result right now if this holds this is what um if you're a professional Democrat in New Jersey and you're running a governor's race next year this should absolutely keep you up at night right this right here because this is and this is what Jack Chelli and everybody else is looking at and they're like okay I'm winning this thing not I could win this thing but I'm winning this thing so we she's only winning she's winning K Harris is only is winning Bergen County PR heavily Jewish but 52% of the vote it's not a lot yep so we're going to take this we're going to take um a quick commercial break we're going to hit the selts and then we're going to throw it back to the schoy cast meet David this is David's phone David finds out about crazy deals from forwards to his family chat and is always a minute too late don't be a minute behind sign up to be the first to the craziest airline deals credit card offers and online deals Jo join pz deals today download the pz deals app and never pay full price again [Music] staffs companies in the US with employees from out of the country these employees are educated smart capable employees the way higho operates as a staffing company different than your average recruiting companies we don't just send our resumes we find new employees they 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